I have never felt a closer kinship with the players of the Kansas City Chiefs than I did last Sunday around about 2:15. The players and I had what I guess you could term as parallel experiences. I, like they, opened their eyes to discover I had slept through most of the second and third quarters, and was going to be stuck reliving an ugly game of which I already knew the outcome by watching it on tape.

So how does a home team that dominates time of possession by a wide margin, edges out their opponent in both passing and rushing yards, and doesn’t throw any interceptions allow 31 unanswered points? Just follow these three easy steps: Read the rest of this entry »

In the week leading up to Monday night’s game, the Chiefs were hyped as having the chance to be the first team since the 2000 Steelers to lose their first three games, then win their next four. However weak one perceives their opponents to have been through that winning streak, there is no denying the rarity of that accomplishment. It’s not insignificant. Perseverance in the face of failure is an admirable trait. It’s one I wish I was more endowed with myself.

On the other hand, drawing comparisons to the 2000 Steelers isn’t particularly admirable. That team opened their November by posting another three game losing streak, ultimately finishing 9-7 and missing the playoffs. Looking at the remainder of the Chiefs’ schedule, it’s not difficult to picture them doing something similar. The next two games seem winnable. The following five, however…. Read the rest of this entry »

Once again I’m opening a game review with proverbial egg on my face. Over the past week, a reader brought to light a statistical inaccuracy in my analysis of Matt Cassel from the Colts game. In the article, I offered a very damning figure demonstrating Cassel’s lack of poise under pressure: a completion percentage of just 28.1% (104/370). Using the same source, the reader pulled a very different number: 41.0% (158/385). I double checked said source and pulled a third number: 41.6% (154/370). That leads me to one of two possible conclusions. Option 1 is that the source’s database is inconsistent. I’m a fan of this option. It’s less damaging to my own credibility.

I reconfirmed the comparison data for Flacco, Manning, Brady, Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Brees, however, and there were no changes. I’ve rechecked them multiple times in the interim. Again, no changes. That leads me to option 2, which is that both the reader and myself did some bad math. I’m not a fan of this option, but it’s the most plausible. As I stated in the prior review, I’m not interested in slandering the guy. Thus, let the record be stated that Cassel’s completion percentage under pressure is 41.6%. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, the Chiefs were a Cinderella team. Fueled by hopes and dreams, along with a cupcake schedule, they surprised everyone but themselves by going 3-0 out of the gate. After a year of solid, mistake free football, everything imploded all at once. One week, they looked like the belle of the ball against the Tennessee Titans, then midnight struck and they lost their glass slipper. No, screw that, it was more like the pumpkin exploded in their damn face. They were brought back down to reality ferociously and had to be scraped off of the collective boot of the Raiders and Ravens to end the season. No fairytale ending. It was more like the Brother’s Grimm version, if Cinderella were the one to get her eyes poked out by pigeons instead of the evil stepsisters. Tim Burton would direct.

This year, the Chiefs were considered a contender going into the season, ready to have a fun time at Camp Crystal Lake. A rough looking schedule curbed expectations some, but nothing like getting slaughtered the first two games did. The beginning of the schedule was supposed to be the easy part, just playing grabass with the other camp counselors, so why did it feel like they were getting chased through a corn field by an unnatural behemoth with a hockey mask and a machete? All they could do is watch their comrades get mangled as their odds of survival slimmed. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m starting this week’s article with a bit of egg on my face. Historically speaking, I’ve been meticulous about nailing down accurate stats for my articles. Last week, feeling the crunch to get the game review posted, I consulted Google for a stat I could have and should have calculated myself. It bit me in the ass. I posted Matt Cassel’s yards per game as 235.4 against losing teams and 141.0 against winning teams. The site I referenced was using just his 2009 and 2010 figures, which is a limitation I could accept, provided they had done their math correctly. They were close…. Over his first two years as a starter in Kansas City, he averaged 239.9 against losing teams and 158.8 against winning teams.

The clue that tipped me off to the screw up, however, was their touchdown and interception figures: 31/12 against losing teams and 14/16 against winning teams. Well…. Cassel didn’t throw 45 TDs and 28 INTs over that stretch. He threw 43 and 23. They spotted him a couple of scores, but they bumped his picks by 22 percent. I don’t like the guy (as a quarterback, anyway…. he may be a perfectly decent human being), but I’m not going to disseminate false information to prove my point.

Why should I? I don’t need to. The actual, factual figures are proof enough. Read the rest of this entry »

Parity is a fickle mistress, and a poorly misunderstood one as well. The word is defined as “the quality or state of being equivalent.” In sports, it’s a way of expressing the ideal that every team is on more or less equal footing, thus, theoretically speaking, any team can transform itself into a winner. In my lifetime, the NFL has gone to great lengths to create parity through salary caps, profit sharing, draft structure, free agency, etc.

In the past ten years, 29 of 32 teams have made at least one playoff appearance. 14 of those 29 have played in a Super Bowl. Seven have won. The median number of playoff appearances per team in that stretch is three, with ten teams having made it at least five times. If you expand back another five years, every team except the Houston Texans–only now in their tenth year of operation–had at least one appearance. 17 teams have played in a Super Bowl, ten have won, and the median number of playoff appearances per team is six. Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Lilja is not a wide receiver.

This news probably does not shock you. Ryan has been a lineman dating all the way back to his high school days at Shawnee Mission Northwest. If you’ve ever seen Ryan shirtless, you know he can’t even be mistaken for an oversize blocking tight end. I know it. You know it. Ryan knows it. 51 of his teammates know it.

Unfortunately, teammate #52 is quarterback Matt Cassel. I’m sure it was an honest mistake. No quarterback worth his salt would aim a pass at an ineligible man with 1:26 left on the clock and the season’s first win in sight. The official NFL gamebook states that his target was running back Dexter McCluster, but Dexter was five yards away. There were two players and two only that were in the vicinity of that pass: Ryan Lilja, and, of course, Eric Weddle, who wears the wrong colors, so Cassel surely wasn’t aiming at him; ergo, he attempted a pass to his left guard. Read the rest of this entry »

One of my goals in preparing this week’s article was to piece together information regarding the frequency of certain types of injuries. I started on this journey toward the end of preseason when it became blatantly obvious that players were dropping like flies. In the modern era, where Google is simultaneously our best friend and worst enemy (see: Rule 34), I naturally assumed that the data I was seeking, much like an obscure Spookey Ruben video from the mid ’90s, would be no more than a few keystrokes away.

I was wrong.

It’s not that the information isn’t being collected. It is. Since 1980, the NFL Injury Surveillance System has acquired unfathomable quantities of raw information on virtually every injury to every player. Team doctors are mandated to provide details on the nature and timing of the injury. The league compiles the information and hands it over on a limited basis to third party research firms, who in turn organize it into meaningful statistics. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2003 the Buffalo Bills opened their season with a 31-0 rout of the New England Patriots. Four months later, the New England Patriots closed their season with a 31-0 rout of the Buffalo Bills.

Barring some bizarre act of the football gods wherein both teams made the playoffs, the Chiefs won’t get a second shot at the Bills this year to return the favor the way the Pats did eight years ago. Then again, there’s always next season. Both teams are probably on the fast track to finishing third in their respective divisions. They’ve faced each other four seasons straight now…. Why not make it five? Read the rest of this entry »

Remember the kid in high school who always turned in his homework late? Yeah, that’s me.

I have only a few observations about the final preseason game itself. As usual with the last game, the more interesting info is what happens the day after. In that regard, I have surprisingly few complaints this year. I see only four players on the final 53-man roster that I unequivocally believe should not be on an NFL roster (more on that in a minute). The fact that the coaches picked mostly the right players from the available pool, however, doesn’t translate to blind optimism. I think we’re in for a rough patch or two. Here’s why: Read the rest of this entry »