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[warthog]

COMMENTARY
Now is the time for Chiefs to make bold move at QB
BY SAM MELLINGER
The Kansas City Star

The old personnel man wants a promise you won’t use his name. He will talk to you, and say exactly what he thinks, but doesn’t want to be the one using a public forum like the local newspaper to tell Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli how to do his job.

It’s just that the man spent a few decades being paid to evaluate NFL talent and he can’t look at the Chiefs without seeing what he thinks is obvious.

“They need a quarterback,” the man says. “Matt Cassel is fine, but look at the league now, the way things are, you need to do better than Matt Cassel. At least bring in someone to compete.”

This is the Chiefs’ major decision now. It is real, even if the decision-makers are maintaining their usual silence. Cassel is the incumbent, and there are no indications that the most important opinions on him are wavering.

But the costs of moving on have never been lower, the potential benefits never been higher, and the timing never better. The easy thing is to see that the Chiefs need to get better at quarterback.

The harder thing is thinking through the options and making the necessary sacrifices.

• • • 

That whole Suck For Luck thing is nonsense. A nonstarter. NFL teams don’t throw seasons, and they certainly don’t make progress by throwing seasons.

But right now, it’s impossible not to think about it.

Because the Chiefs will own the 11th or 12th pick in April’s draft — it’ll be decided by a coin flip with Seattle — and that’s just too far to trade into the first (Andrew Luck) or second (Robert Griffin III) pick. Whatever chance the Chiefs had to draft one of this class’ premier quarterbacks died when they won seven games.

Shawn Zobel, who runs DraftHeadquarters.com, thinks a realistic framework for the Chiefs to move into the No. 2 pick would be roughly what Atlanta gave up last year to move from No. 27 to No. 6 in order to take Julio Jones: two first-round picks, one second, and two fourths.

The NFL’s new CBA includes cost-control on rookies, plus the Browns have extra picks from the trade with Atlanta, so it would be an enormous stretch for the Chiefs to make the best offer. Either way, it would be a staggering haul that didn’t help the Falcons, plus left them without a first- or fourth-round pick this year.

Griffin’s potential is real, but the Chiefs have too many other needs — starting with an offensive line that needs to get both younger and better — to do that. Besides, trading up is entirely out of Pioli’s track record.

We also know that re-signing Kyle Orton is both uncertain (he’ll have other options) and entirely inadequate. That leaves two options for a bold move: take a quarterback with the first-round pick, or go big with someone else’s quarterback.

A first-round pick probably means Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill. He’s a former wide receiver with only a season and a half as a starting quarterback, so he’s raw, especially with quarterback intricacies like pre-snap reads and progressing through receivers. He recently broke his foot but is expected to recover.

The last option is the one that makes the most sense. Peyton Manning is the sexy name, of course, and the obvious and sad irony is that the Chiefs haven’t won a playoff game since the last time they brought in someone else’s aching Hall of Fame quarterback, Joe Montana.

Manning would be a no-brainer, both in terms of football and public relations. The problem is the list of what would have to happen — his neck fully heals, the Colts let him go, and he decides he wants to play somewhere else — is wrought with uncertainty.

The positive is that the Chiefs are in a place to offer Manning a talented roster with a coaching staff that could still be suited to him and a presumably winnable division.

Matt Flynn is the best free agent, though the Packers could use the franchise tag to keep him as their backup. Flynn drove up his price by throwing for six touchdowns and a franchise-record 480 yards in the season finale against Detroit, and was also good (24 of 37 passing, 251 yards, three touchdowns and an interception) in his one start last season.

But here’s the irony: his profile is an awful lot like Matt Cassel’s was three years ago. Both are career backups to Hall of Famers. Both have benefitted from being in wildly successful systems. Flynn will be 27 when the season begins, just like Cassel was when he began with the Chiefs.

It’s a small sample, but perhaps instructive that of two NFL personnel men who spoke for this column, one said he liked Cassel more three years ago than he likes Flynn now.

That’s OK. There aren’t many certainties in the NFL, but here’s one: the Chiefs are in a promising place that can best be ruined by lacking the guts to do something bold.

• • • 

The advantage the Chiefs have in searching for a better quarterback situation is in timing first, and resources second.

Romeo Crennel hasn’t hired an offensive coordinator, or even given much of an indication on which coaches will be back. That gives him an opportunity to sync the new staff with whatever decision is made about the quarterback.

Acquiring someone else’s quarterback — Manning or Flynn — comes with an added benefit. The Chiefs have plenty of salary-cap space, and could structure any deal in such a way to make the most out of the league-mandated spending minimum that begins in the 2013 season.

The quote at the top of this column is a pretty good summation. Cassel is fine. He’s had four seasons as a starting quarterback. Twice he won 10 games, once he played for a team that had no chance, and the other he got hurt.

But this narrative from the Chiefs that Cassel is young and developing needs to stop. He turns 30 in May. He’s started 54 games. Rookies are coming into the NFL ready.

Cassel told The Star last week he wouldn’t mind if the Chiefs made him compete for the job. Nothing that happened last season indicates that competition would come from Ricky Stanzi.

The Chiefs have the chassis for a good football team, now and into the future. Much of that is because of the improvement of players such as Tamba Hali and Jamaal Charles and Pioli’s ability to sign them long-term.

Since Pioli took over three years ago, two of the most consistent limits on the team have been his unwillingness to make bold personnel acquisitions and the quarterback.

This offseason presents the perfect chance to change that.

To reach Sam Mellinger, call 816-234-4365, send email to smellinger@kcstar.com or follow twitter.com/mellinger. For previous columns, go to KansasCity.com.

[SPC Hephner]

I know it won't happen, but 2012 1st rounder, 2013 1st rounder, Dwayne Bowe, and a 2012 4th rounder sounds like a better trade than what the trade this article suggests (from STL eyes) and still leaves us with 5 draft picks (and compensory picks) to adress depth, including a second and third rounder.

And we still have enough money to grab a few starters in FA.

[jambal67]

I think we all have to come to grips with the fact either Cassel or Orton is going to be the starter next Sept., regardless of what we do in the upcoming months. We got sold a wagonload of BS the last time we picked up someone's franchised player so I'm a little reluctant to do the same thing with Flynn. That whole Manning thing looks good on the surface, but what you have is a 36 (by the time camp opens) year old QB of questionable health. That's if he's available and would come to KC. I believe I'll pass. We're not going to get Luck and there will be a team that outbids us for RG3. Pioli may pull the trigger to move up, but you can count on some team like Washington to do a Ditka for him.
So what's the best option? In my book, it's to sign Orton, cut Cassel and draft a low 1st or high 2nd round QB. In the off season and during camp, let Stanzi and the new guy fight it out for the #2 spot. The problem here is that Orton will probably want a long term hefty contract and guarantees he'll be the starter. The second option would be to leave Cassel in place, work with Stanzi and the new guy and have an eye on dumping Cassel before the next contract year. If either Stanzi or the new guy doesn't get it by the end of the year, there's a lot of QBs in next year's class.

[The_Jonas]

jambal67, on 15 January 2012 - 04:01 PM, said:

I think we all have to come to grips with the fact either Cassel or Orton is going to be the starter next Sept., regardless of what we do in the upcoming months. We got sold a wagonload of BS the last time we picked up someone's franchised player so I'm a little reluctant to do the same thing with Flynn. That whole Manning thing looks good on the surface, but what you have is a 36 (by the time camp opens) year old QB of questionable health. That's if he's available and would come to KC. I believe I'll pass. We're not going to get Luck and there will be a team that outbids us for RG3. Pioli may pull the trigger to move up, but you can count on some team like Washington to do a Ditka for him.
So what's the best option? In my book, it's to sign Orton, cut Cassel and draft a low 1st or high 2nd round QB. In the off season and during camp, let Stanzi and the new guy fight it out for the #2 spot. The problem here is that Orton will probably want a long term hefty contract and guarantees he'll be the starter. The second option would be to leave Cassel in place, work with Stanzi and the new guy and have an eye on dumping Cassel before the next contract year. If either Stanzi or the new guy doesn't get it by the end of the year, there's a lot of QBs in next year's class.

KC will win more games next year, and we'll be in a worse position.

I can always think of an excuse not to get a QB, but if you want a franchise type long term QB... you're either going to need to 1. Lose 12 or more games 2. Sacrifice a little bit to get in position to get one.

One or the other. Or we can draft a developmental QB every season (instead of once every 6 seasons) and hope one of them eventually grows into it. I'd rather take the chance on a big time QB, but we can't just sit here spinning our wheels while we have so many great players who will be out of their prime before we even make the damn effort.

By saying we pick to low to trade up, and also saying you don't want us to lose to get the high pick... it seems you're acquiescing on ever acquiring an elite QB prospect.

With this team, as it is, I would have no trouble trading away 2 firsts, a second, and two forths If it meant I could acquire a QB prospect I coveted. I'm not an NFL scout, and I've only seen a bit of RGIII, so that's their decision to make. I don't think Pioli, in spite of Brady carrying that team, realizes how important the position is.

[SPC Hephner]

This is how I look at it:
We lost our best offensive and defensive player within the first 5 quarters of the season, had the third hardest schedule in the league, went through 3 Qb's including Tyler f**king Palko, fired our head coach mid season, and lost 5 games by over 25 points....... And STILL couldn't get a top 10 pick. This team is too talented to be bad enough to "earn" a top 5 pick. If it didn't happen this year, I don't see it happening any time soon. So trading up is the only way were drafting an elite prospect.

[The_Jonas]

SPC Hephner, on 15 January 2012 - 04:31 PM, said:

This is how I look at it:
We lost our best offensive and defensive player within the first 5 quarters of the season, had the third hardest schedule in the league, went through 3 Qb's including Tyler f**king Palko, fired our head coach mid season, and lost 5 games by over 25 points....... And STILL couldn't get a top 10 pick. This team is too talented to be bad enough to "earn" a top 5 pick. If it didn't happen this year, I don't see it happening any time soon. So trading up is the only way were drafting an elite prospect.

Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

If we don't trade up this year, we'll be having the same conversation next year.

Unless Cassel pulls an Alex Smth or something.

[BrooklynChiefsFan]

ehhh, I dunno. I mean, this team at full strength? Yeah, they're pretty good. But this year? We were a Phillip Rivers implosion and a Dexter McCluster Hail Mary from 5 wins and picking 6/7/8. I'm not even mentioning the Packers or last matchup with Denver because we earned both those wins with great play.

Hindsight is 20/20 and I am not in favor of the players or coaches tanking games or the season, but I would gladly trade both of those two fool's gold wins for a better pick and an easier go of trading up in the draft. and yes, I realize that means the Chargers would have won the division, which actually is way better than the freakin Broncos.

[BigRedChiefsMachine]

The_Jonas, on 15 January 2012 - 04:51 PM, said:

Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

If we don't trade up this year, we'll be having the same conversation next year.

Unless Cassel pulls an Alex Smth or something.

I hoped for that when we signed Cassel. I hoped he'd grow into it after getting some offseasons and starts under his belt. Alex Smith was a first round talent though, and that's what we need on the roster. I think this draft is terrible for Qb's, unless you have the first or second one off the board (Luck and RGIII). That's why I'm surprised that Barkley and Landry Jones stayed in college. They aren't great QB's, but they would have went pretty damn high.

[Justme]

Whatever it takes we need to address the QB situation. If we dont, then we are as good as we are going to be. Cassel has shown us what he can do. He is consitently inconsitent. We know that once he gets knocked down he gets happy feet and has a bad game thereafter. He is good enough to get us to the playoffs; however, he is not the one that I want with the ball in the last possession of the game when he has to get a TD.

[Pissonoakland]

I don't see the Chiefs doing something like this....they never do something like this.

And I doubt our GM, who stumbled upon one of the greatest QB's ever at pick #199, believes just because you make a bold move to the top of the draft for a QB guarantees success. There's basically one guy that's gonna be available for taking a risk on....RGIII. You think Pioli is going to offer the Rams as much as say... Snyder and the Skins would for instance? I don't think so, It's not his style, nor is it Clark Hunt's

What happened to all the Stanzi love? No one thinks he could pressure Cassel possibly?

[SPC Hephner]

Pissonoakland, on 17 January 2012 - 07:39 PM, said:

I don't see the Chiefs doing something like this....they never do something like this.

And I doubt our GM, who stumbled upon one of the greatest QB's ever at pick #199, believes just because you make a bold move to the top of the draft for a QB guarantees success. There's basically one guy that's gonna be available for taking a risk on....RGIII. You think Pioli is going to offer the Rams as much as say... Snyder and the Skins would for instance? I don't think so, It's not his style, nor is it Clark Hunt's

What happened to all the Stanzi love? No one thinks he could pressure Cassel possibly?

thats what the "patriot way" is to me. Get lucky and draft a HOF QB in the sixth round that you didnt want to draft to begin with lol

[nathanKent]

Justme, on 17 January 2012 - 12:33 PM, said:

He is good enough to get us to the playoffs;

No he isn't. He's just barely not awful enough to drag an otherwise really good team all the way to the ground.

[The_Jonas]

SPC Hephner, on 17 January 2012 - 07:52 PM, said:

thats what the "patriot way" is to me. Get lucky and draft a HOF QB in the sixth round that you didnt want to draft to begin with lol

That's the patriot way.

[Chi-town_Chief]

Pissonoakland, on 17 January 2012 - 07:39 PM, said:

What happened to all the Stanzi love? No one thinks he could pressure Cassel possibly?

The issue with stanzi is we have no idea if he can pressure cassel. A certain former head coach made sure he kept him off the field.

[nathanKent]

Eh.... I've listened to a few interviews with Stanzi. Nobody's ever gonna mistake him for a Rhodes scholar. There are some advantages to shear meatheadedness, particularly the potential for VERY short term memory, but idk.... I'd feel much better if we had a really smart guy back there.

[The_Jonas]

nathanKent, on 18 January 2012 - 09:06 PM, said:

Eh.... I've listened to a few interviews with Stanzi. Nobody's ever gonna mistake him for a Rhodes scholar. There are some advantages to shear meatheadedness, particularly the potential for VERY short term memory, but idk.... I'd feel much better if we had a really smart guy back there.

Meh. Alex Smith is the smartest guy in the league, and it took him like 8 years to stop sucking.

Meanwhile Jim Kelly and Dan Marino sound like the most meat-headed guys ever.

[BigRedChiefsMachine]

Do you guys think it will really matter though (Stanzi's presence)? With Cassel or Orton on the team, will Stanzi ever get a fair look? That's why I like getting a high round QB in the draft - because there are certain expectations. If we open training camp and RAC says Cassel will have to compete for his job vs Stanzi (with no other QB's on the roster), I take that just the same as RAC saying Cassel is our starter.

[nathanKent]

The_Jonas, on 18 January 2012 - 10:20 PM, said:

Meh. Alex Smith is the smartest guy in the league, and it took him like 8 years to stop sucking.

Meanwhile Jim Kelly and Dan Marino sound like the most meat-headed guys ever.

I'm still not convinced he's done sucking either. Still, while it's not an absolute indicator, I just trust a smart guy's ability to comprehend a defense more than a dumb guy's.

[The_Jonas]

nathanKent, on 18 January 2012 - 10:54 PM, said:

I'm still not convinced he's done sucking either. Still, while it's not an absolute indicator, I just trust a smart guy's ability to comprehend a defense more than a dumb guy's.

I think listening to someone in an interview is a poor way to gauge intelligence, especially enough to call them 'dumb'. I've heard Stanzi he he sounds like a typical meat-head QB. There is nothing atypical about him in that regard. Favre, Marino, Kelly... all f**king meat-heads. Meanwhile the smart guys like Joey Harrington aren't exactly having huge success.

I've only once listened to a QB and said "This guy is way too f**kin' stupid to be an NFL QB" and that was Vince Young. He didn't sound stupid, he sounded like moron with a case of serious emotional arrested development.

Again, after listening to Kelly and Marino I've come to believe that standard 'intelligence' is meaningless for a QB. Complete morons can write musical masterpieces too, and often do so better than the smart ones. Some people are just smart at certain things.

[warthog]

The_Jonas, on 19 January 2012 - 03:54 AM, said:

I think listening to someone in an interview is a poor way to gauge intelligence, especially enough to call them 'dumb'. I've heard Stanzi he he sounds like a typical meat-head QB. There is nothing atypical about him in that regard. Favre, Marino, Kelly... all f**king meat-heads. Meanwhile the smart guys like Joey Harrington aren't exactly having huge success.

I've only once listened to a QB and said "This guy is way too f**kin' stupid to be an NFL QB" and that was Vince Young. He didn't sound stupid, he sounded like moron with a case of serious emotional arrested development.

Again, after listening to Kelly and Marino I've come to believe that standard 'intelligence' is meaningless for a QB. Complete morons can write musical masterpieces too, and often do so better than the smart ones. Some people are just smart at certain things.

Bradshaw would probably fit in there too. I always listened to him talk and would wonder how smart you had to be to be a QB.