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[warthog]

Expert: Royals as contenders ... and other predictions
Red Sox to rule; Morales a key for Angels; Andruw Jones on a comeback
ASK THE EXPERT
By Tony DeMarco
updated 4:51 p.m. CT, Thurs., April. 2, 2009

PHOENIX - Observations and predictions after seven weeks in the sun:

The Royals as contenders? You bet:
OK, so they probably aren't going to be this year's Rays, but for no other reason than we may not see a 2008 Rays kind of season for years to come. But there are several reasons for legitimate optimism here:

Since 2005, the Royals' win total has increased from 62 to 69 to 75, suggesting that not only is a winning season (the second since 1993) a real possibility, but a total organizational building effort could produce a solid run of relative success.

The payroll has edged up to a club record of around $70 million, and most of the spending has been wise. The Gil Meche signing has proven a lot of people wrong, and this winter the Royals were willing to take on salaries to fill primary needs — namely, left-handed power and a leadoff hitter/center fielder.

Those have been filled by Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp, the latter of whom brings an edge the Royals also can use. There's also a good chance that Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth — two more relatively pricey additions — can be better than the two departed relievers they replaced, Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez.

Surprise teams need jumps to stardom by their key young players, and so we bring you Zack Greinke as a Cy Young candidate, plus likely step-ups from Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Kyle Davies.

“I came here with an open mind, not having seen much of them. I like what I see,'' one NL-team scout said.

The other ingredient here is an American League Central that has no favorite, no obvious 90-win team in the mix. You can make division-winning cases for the Indians and Twins, but they have their issues, too.

Sleepers and breakout candidates:
The Los Angeles Angels were the best team in the Cactus League, and it wasn't really close. They outscored opponents by just more than three runs per game, and that was despite starting rotation members landing on the injured list in alarming numbers.

The Angels just kept bashing away at Tempe Diablo Stadium, and in the middle of it all was Kendry Morales, whose average was .405 through Tuesday. No, the 26-year-old Cuban defector isn't going to be Mark Teixeira.

But he's got a lot more power than Casey Kotchman, and he'll be hitting in a fortuitous, RBI-rich spot behind Chone Figgins, Howie Kendrick, Bobby Abreu, Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter.

In 377 big-league at-bats over parts of the last three seasons, Morales has 12 homers and 45 RBI. He's going way beyond those numbers in 2009.

If you didn't already know it, Shin-Soo Choo's blast over the center-field wall at Dodger Stadium off Team USA's Roy Oswalt in the WBC semifinal game should convince you: This guy can hit, and he has more power than you think.

Choo, 25, put up some impressive numbers (.992 OPS) against right-handed pitching last season, and is expected to get more of an opportunity to play against lefties.

That will translate into bigger power numbers than the 14 homers and 66 RBI he put up in 2008. And that means Choo — the second Korean position player to reach the big leagues (following Hee-Seop Choi) — is about to cement his place as the best Korean position player to reach the big leagues.

Among the big issues all spring at aging, always-crowded HoHoKam Park – home of the Cubs – was the outfield. Specifically, Milton Bradley's transition and Kosuke Fukudome's production.

Amid all the uncertainty, Micah Hoffpauir quietly just kept hitting. He's no kid at 29, and he's not much of an outfielder, either. But a set of circumstances is in place that could lead to him playing a much bigger role than you think in the lineup of the NL's best team:

Bradley has played more than 100 games in the outfield only once in his career, and is 31; Fukudome's spring has done little to ease concern about his steep 2008 second-half decline; and if Derrek Lee's production continues to slip, there could be even more at-bats for Hoffpauir to grab.

There is life in Andruw Jones' bat, after all:
Two springs ago, Rudy Jaramillo was talking Sammy Sosa to anybody who would listen.

Sure enough, Jaramillo, the Rangers' highly regarded hitting instructor, proved correct, and Sosa led the Rangers with 92 RBI in a comeback season after sitting out 2006.

Which brings us to this spring and Andruw Jones, who is trying to resuscitate a brilliant career that alarmingly has spiraled to this: trying to make the Rangers as a fifth outfielder/right-handed bat off the bench.

Jaramillo has been Jones' biggest backer, talking about Jones' new-found receptiveness to instruction (a long-standing knock), mechanical refinements and regained confidence last amidst a horrendous 2008 with the Dodgers.

Sure enough, the Rangers, who need another right-handed power bat, kept Jones over Frank Catalanotto, and Jaramillo's proclamation that Jones 'can help our club' will get a chance to play out. Count on Jaramillo being right again.

The envelope, please...:
NL East: New York (91-71), Philadelphia (88-74), Atlanta (84-78), Florida (76-86), Washington (68-94).

NL Central: Chicago, (93-69) St. Louis (85-77), Milwaukee (84-78), Cincinnati (79-83), Houston (72-90), Pittsburgh (66-96).

NL West: Los Angeles (88-74), Arizona (84-78), San Francisco (77-85), Colorado (76-86), San Diego (69-93).

AL East: Boston (96-66), New York (90-72), Tampa Bay (89-73), Toronto (76-86), Baltimore (74-88).

AL Central: Minnesota (87-75), Cleveland (86-76), Kansas City (84-78), Detroit (78-84), Chicago (77-85).

AL West: Los Angeles (90-72), Oakland (79-83), Texas (75-87), Seattle (69-93).

NL pennant winner: Cubs. AL pennant winner: Boston. World Series winner: Boston.

Q: The Red Sox look very strong, the Rays are young and the defending AL champs, and the Yankees spent almost half a billion dollars on superstar free agents. Who do you see winning the division, and who will miss the playoffs?
— Stephen Shoemaker, Tulsa, Okla.

A: It's a tough call in the AL East, for sure. But I have to pick the Red Sox. I believe their starting pitching is the strongest and deepest among the three contenders, and over a 162-game schedule, I think that's what wins nine times out of 10.

The Sox rotation goes eight-deep including John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden likely taking turns at the back end. Nobody else in the game has that much starting pitching talent.

That said, the Sox do have legit injury concerns with Julio Lugo (out), as well as J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell and David Ortiz. If too many of them are out over the course of the season, run production could become a problem, as position-player depth isn't great.

The Rays really have a tough act to follow. Teams that come out of nowhere to achieve unexpected success usually take a step back the following season.

But the Rays are a bit different in that most of their position players didn't have anywhere near their best seasons in 2008, and therefore have room for improvement. The biggest example may be Carl Crawford, and don't forget that budding superstar Evan Longoria played in only 122 games last season.

Their rotation also is very deep — as in most any other case, a talent like David Price would be starting the season in the big leagues, and not at Triple-A. I do have concerns about their bullpen matching last year's outstanding performance, however. So I see the Rays dropping down a notch from a year ago, and battling the Yankees and perhaps the Twins or Indians for the wildcard.

As for the Yankees, for all the money they spent, they still are a team with holes and issues. I still think Joba Chamberlain is more valuable to them as the setup man to Mariano Rivera, but I understand why they want him in the rotation, especially with the injury possibilities for Chein-Ming Wang, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte.

I don't like their bullpen in front of Rivera, and when you look at their lineup without Alex Rodriguez, it's hard to envision it scoring as many runs as a year ago, when it fell far short of expectations. You have a mix of aging, injury-prone veterans and unproven young hitters, so there is going to be great pressure on the pitching staff.

Q: I will never understand why the Chicago Cubs didn't re-sign Kerry Wood. Do you think they have a chance with Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol?
— Michael Kozon, Maumelle, Ark.

A: I didn't totally agree with the Cubs' decision, either, Michael. And as it turns out, they have backed away from the reasoning behind that decision.

I think Wood is going to stay healthy as a closer, and I would have been willing to give him the deal the Indians did — two years, $20.5 million guaranteed with a 2011 option.

The Cubs quickly decided last winter that they wanted to avoid giving him that kind of deal, believing they had a cheaper and just-as-effective option in Carlos Marmol.

It may turn out that way, but at least to start the season, Lou Piniella has decided to go with Kevin Gregg, who wisely was picked up from Florida (for prospect Jose Ceda) as a fallback option.

So you certainly can ask the question: If they didn't really believe in Marmol, why not just re-sign Wood? Bottom line, though, I think the Cubs will be solid in the late innings, with a combination of Gregg, Marmol (who was so good as a multiple-inning setup man), Aaron Heilman, lefty Neal Cotts and possibly Jeff Samardzija.

Q: Has Kevin Millar retired from baseball, now that he's left the Baltimore Orioles? He was popular with Red Sox fans, but didn't produce much offense while an Oriole.
— Pete, Providence, R.I.

A: Millar has stayed in the AL East, Pete, finding a spot with the Toronto Blue Jays, where he figures to fit in as a backup at first base to Lyle Overbay and at designated hitter to Adam Lind.

With both Overbay and Lind being left-handed hitters, Millar should get at-bats mostly against left-handed pitching. I don't think he'll be able to match his 20 homers and 72 RBI from 2008 with Baltimore, but he should have another decent season in him at age 37.

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[Dom]

Be nice to see some success for the Royals