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NFL 2021 Draft Thread
#1

The NFL Draft is going to start Thursday April 29th. We're about 10 days away from knowing what rookies we have to look forward to in 2021 and beyond.

I've been spending a decent amount of my free time doing mock drafts on PFN's simulator. As I said elsewhere I like the trade system in their simulator, though I didn't use it in these drafts.

Anyway, here's 2 of my recent mock drafts and I'll break them down. I generally run 4 round mocks because  the Chiefs have 2 fourth rounders, it legit takes less than 5 minutes most of the time and I never trade up just because it's a real hassle to determine a fair value. I am less trade happy than I was when I first found this website.

HEAVY D DRAFT
In this draft I saw a lot of defensive value early, so I took it. Paye I've seen go to the Giants at 11 in a few national mocks and he fits the Spags DE mold. Bolton is a little less value and may not help the Chiefs as much as a better coverage LB might, but he's a tackling machine. Besides, OT value wasn't there at that point. You can always use more DBs which the Chiefs have done well at finding and developing talent there. Campbell is a tall (6'2"), lean, fast corner with great potential. Gillespie plays similar to Dirty Dan (hard hitter, better vs. run than pass) and would be an excellent fit in a similar role in the future. I could see us draft a large S and convert them to coverage LB too, though he plays bigger than he actually is (6'0", 210 lbs). I still ended up with solid OT prospects late in the 4th, though where these players rank varies wildly on different draft ranking services, but more on that later.


[Image: Heavy-D.jpg]


HEAVY O DRAFT
In this draft I saw more offensive value early. Fans often think of this year when it comes to the draft, but GMs tend to think beyond, which is exactly why I see OC as a potential big need this draft despite signing the serviceable Austin Blythe to a 1 year contract. Besides, Andy Reid likes to put the best 5 starters out there on offense instead of pigeon holing players as specific spots, so you could see Creed and Blythe on the field at the same time. I had really good options at OT in the 2nd as both Mayfield and Liam Eichenberg were still available. The Chiefs might trade back into the late 2nd if this were the case in real life and snag both. Brevin Jordan is kind of a Mahomes' wishlist pick, getting a guy that allows the team to run more 2 TE sets to help the run game without sacrificing much in the pass game as well as finding a legit replacement should Kelce miss time. Again I wanted to snag a mid round DB and at EDGE Ogundeji is a size / build fit with potential for a Spags D.

[Image: Heavy-Mahomes.jpg]

SUMMARY
I'd explain more about the players in these drafts, but the thing is I don't feel these are particularly realistic drafts. Most of these services at least partially base their rankings on conversations with actual scouts and they have more disagreement than ever.

The main problem I'm seeing is the OT market. OT is deep and quality this year, which is a great thing for the Chiefs who may snag a couple even, but apparently NFL scouts are not in agreement over what order to rank them.

I've seen a player (OT Sam Cosmi, Texas) be ranked 4th best OL one place and then as low as 17th on another. That's an extreme example, but there's a lot of variance in the rankings everywhere after the first couple guys. Some of the mid to late 2nd round OTs in these simulated mocks I've done (Liam Eichenberg, Dillon Radunz, Jalen Mayfield) I've seen go to us in the 1st round in national mocks or last into the 3rd in others. This throws off how the entire board will drop and might even be why the Chiefs find more value at a different position like LB or WR early.

Be prepared for a lot of "the Chiefs overdrafted player X" articles or that they went for a luxury pick over need, but I'm going to trust that the team is just valuing players differently than other teams and media and you can't base your draft too much on what other people think instead of what you think.

I feel strongly that this draft is either going to be a dream or nightmare for Brett Veach based on how the teams in front of us draft. It's also important to consider the Cheifs could still theoretically get a veteran tackle in FA (Okung, Fisher, Schwartz) or trade (Orlando Brown). I think we're more likely to trade up than down since we need quality more than quantity at this point besides just the fact that Veach tends to be aggressive anyway.
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#2

I have no idea what to expect and for the first time in a long time, I really dont care to do ANY research on my own. I do appreciate write ups like this though.
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#3

(04-18-2021, 05:49 PM)tyecopeland Wrote:  I have no idea what to expect and for the first time in a long time, I really dont care to do ANY research on my own. I do appreciate write ups like this though.
I am thinking along these same lines.  Late round picks have so many variables that I am just going to wait and see.  I trust that the Chiefs staff have more in-depth knowledge on these players than I do.

I like reading about it and watching some draft info and at the same time I know that they are just guessing like I would be at this point.  

I hope we get some needed depth and address our issues.

[Image: 57agPlO.png]
Pure blind luck... it's been protecting children from fire for centuries!
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#4

(04-18-2021, 05:49 PM)tyecopeland Wrote:  I have no idea what to expect and for the first time in a long time, I really dont care to do ANY research on my own. I do appreciate write ups like this though.

Thanks. I am not going to blow smoke up your rear like I know what player really deserves to go where or that I have my own personal big board, but I enjoy learning more about the players and possibilities as well as it gives me a decent idea of how the positions might fall generally. I just also know it's more futile this year than ever, especially without a centralized combine.

I just had the most impossible draft though. I didn't take a screenshot, but I remember the players.

61. Teven Jenkins, OT
63. Liam Eichenberg, OT
89. Jordan Smith, EDGE
94. Robert Rochell, CB
144. Some Safety... I dunno.
Browns 2022 2nd
Bills (I think) 2022 3rd

I traded back from 31 with the Browns for Picks 59 (Maybe, I think they traded a different pick, but this is the pick they start the draft with), 89, and a 2022 2nd. I liked multiple players at that spot, but that was some crazy good value. Then, despite that there was impossible value left at OT, I decided to take another overpriced trade. I believe it was trading pick 59 (or whatever) and 138 for Buffalo's pick 61 and their 2022 3rd. I say "I believe" because I know it was pick 61 but someone else may have traded for it then traded it to me. Then, still nobody took Teven Jenkins and Eichenberg.

That's two OTs often graded to round 1 at the ass end of the 2nd plus some kick ass trade value. I also had the option to trade pick 63 for most of the rest of Cleveland's 2022 draft (3rd, 4th, 5th), but Eichenberg at the end of the second is, once again, impossible value. Everything else after that I just kind of went after positions, because again I know I don't know everything.

If the draft actually went like this people might assume the Chiefs were getting some behind the scenes reparations from the league for the way the SB was officiated.
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#5

Note I picked both of our picks thus far in mocks. I love these picks. Most experts have liked the picks so far.

I have heard some complain Nick Bolton doesn't have a great athletic profile, but you can see on tape his play speed is solid, he's got excellent lateral movement, and he can keep up just fine in the SEC against a lot of NFL talent.

For Creed Humphrey I've seen two main complaints, neither having to deal specifically with the player. I've seen is that there isn't positional value picking a Center, but that's hogwash. You're in the late 2nd round, you can throw that out the window. Get the player that helps your team the most. Arguably the best Center in the draft can be a far better value than some of these positions that were already picked over.

The other complaint was we've already invested so much in the IOL that it didn't make sense. That's short-sighted.

Austin Blythe is on a one year contract.
Kyle Long is on a one year contract.
LDTMD is on the last year of his contract.
Mike Remmers is on a one year contract.
Andrew Wylie is on a one year contract.
Nick Allegretti even only has two years left.

Going into 2022 we would have potentially had JAGs protecting our half billion dollar QB at C and RG. Creed is another long term solution, whether he significantly helps us win a SB this year or not.
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#6

(05-01-2021, 08:10 AM)asskickingboots Wrote:  Note I picked both of our picks thus far in mocks. I love these picks. Most experts have liked the picks so far.

I have heard some complain Nick Bolton doesn't have a great athletic profile, but you can see on tape his play speed is solid, he's got excellent lateral movement, and he can keep up just fine in the SEC against a lot of NFL talent.

For Creed Humphrey I've seen two main complaints, neither having to deal specifically with the player. I've seen is that there isn't positional value picking a Center, but that's hogwash. You're in the late 2nd round, you can throw that out the window. Get the player that helps your team the most. Arguably the best Center in the draft can be a far better value than some of these positions that were already picked over.

The other complaint was we've already invested so much in the IOL that it didn't make sense. That's short-sighted.

Austin Blythe is on a one year contract.
Kyle Long is on a one year contract.
LDTMD is on the last year of his contract.
Mike Remmers is on a one year contract.
Andrew Wylie is on a one year contract.
Nick Allegretti even only has two years left.

Going into 2022 we would have potentially had JAGs protecting our half billion dollar QB at C and RG. Creed is another long term solution, whether he significantly helps us win a SB this year or not.

Dustin Colquitt was a second-round pick.  Colquitt was a great pick.

I agree with your logic, especially with this draft: the rumor I keep hearing is about the talent cliff that hits in the second-round grades for most teams, so sure, fuck it.  Just draft the guys who you think will help your team.
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#7

An idiot at Warpaint pegged Creed as a D+ pick.

I did not agree with that grade, at all. The only knock on Creed was his arm length, which allows defenders to get shots into his frame, and longer defenders can separate and discard him. That is a valid and a legitimate argument.

However, his footwork is fluid for short-pull game. I will also note that he finishes blocks with good intensity, which this offensive line lacked, especially in 3rd and 1 situations.

I will also note that he helps with cleanup when teammates' protection gets leaky, which was a major problem during SB 55, since some of our offensive linemen were too busy blocking each other while letting the Buccaneers defense running loose.

Finally, I will also point out this. Compare Creed's measurables to Rodney Hudson, and I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

And to give a D+ on a player who was arguably rated #1/#2 center in this draft, who was projected to be a late day 1/early day 2 pick, on pick 63?

I'm sorry, that dog don't hunt.
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#8

I was gone most of the weekend, so I haven't had time to really unpack the picks the way I normally would. Here's my 1,000 foot view. By position these were nearly perfect choices. By potential these are great picks. They all have issues, primarily with polish.

Going into the draft many people wanted a better backup for Kelce. We got that, a potentially great move TE in Gray.

Going into the draft many considered Powell a great sleeper at WR. He even fits the X WR role we largely lack.

Going into the draft many wanted us to get an EDGE in the Spags mold, long, strong, with speed. Kaindoh fits that mold, even if he's raw.

About the only move that wasn't an obvious need was OG Trey Smith when A) Offensive line is always a need, B) it's a late 6th round pick, lighten up, C) As I pointed out in my most recent post this fills a major need come 2022. I've heard immense praise for Smith, basically that he was a top 100 or even 40 guy except for medical issues (blood clots) that haven't made him miss a single game and IIRC haven't happened for 2 years.

It's going to be interesting to watch these guys and frankly a lot of the rookies from last year, get a full offseason to work together. Let's get that OLine competition rolling and gelling. Let's get some of these young guys in preseason games and get a real appreciation for them.
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#9

I was happy with the picks we took. They not only were "need" picks, they were all picks that were valued well above where we drafted them. We added two potential long-term OL, added a solid TE that could develop into a very good TE. I am low key excited about Powell will be fun to see how well he fits. He didn't have a lot of drops in college, I am hoping that he is just an over looked WR that can outperform expectations.

In addition, our UDFAs seem to have hit the remaining needs of defense. Hopefully some will work out and we can get our younger secondary healthy.

[Image: 57agPlO.png]
Pure blind luck... it's been protecting children from fire for centuries!
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