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Chiefs @ Patriots, Annual Trip to Foxborough
#1

Commence obligatory grumble about always having to travel to face the Patriots in the regular season due to scheduling quirks... grumble, grumble. Can't wait for our headsets to cut out on a key 3rd down.

[Image: patriots-memes.jpg]

Last week I pointed out how the Raiders weren't legitimate because of their massive negative point differential which just took a swan dive into the asphalt. The Patriots on the other hand have a massive positive point differential, +177, second best in the league behind Baltimore.

Make no mistake, despite losing to the Texans and looking inept on offense most of the game, that's still a real good team, but that point differential is smoke and mirrors getting to feast on some weak opponents.

The Patriots have an average offense (Ranked 14 in YPG), yet they are top 5 in points scored. There are 3 main reasons for this:

1. Their defense is damn good.
Fewest points allowed, 2nd fewest yards, 2nd fewest yards per play. I'm not going to go into this too much because I think elite offenses GENERALLY find ways to exploit elite defenses, or at least push them farther than most. Also, see point #3.

We know they'll try to take away our 2 best things, so that means covering deep and bracketing Kelce in the middle. Don't be surprised if the running game goes off on them because of it, ESPECIALLY if we see more Darwin Thompson (mancrush). They have the 6th best run defense by yards per game, but are about average on yards per carry (4.4 ypc).

So, this is their legitimate reason for being good 'n shit. The others are why it's not all it's cracked up to be.

2. Teams play dumb against them.
This is something that's happened in our favor a few times this year including the Ravens and I should coin some cute term for it, but teams often make dumb mistakes because they're so worried about points that haven't been scored yet they leave points off the board and swing momentum against them.

It'd be the 1st quarter, maybe even the first drive, and teams will opt not to take a chipshot FG or pull out some "that was never gonna work" trick play ending in disaster because they have to keep up with some not actualized but perceived score.

"You gotta go for it against Brady" is the logic, but what it tends to result in is less points early, a widening deficit by mid game, but rarely it allows a team not on their level to keep up late into the game. You likely win if you roll sevens all game, but the odds of you rolling sevens all game against a disciplined team are pretty fucking slim.

My philosophy is simple. Early in the game, you take the points. Yes, even against Brady or prime Manning. I'm not saying you punt from the 40 on 4th and inches, but I guarantee you if I had the time to go through decades of footage it would be easy to show all of the times teams took themselves out of games playing against big names because they're chasing phantom points and just how rarely this actually works.

There we go, I'll call it "Chasing the Phantom", and nobody will know what the hell I'm talking about when I do so I'll have to go into this lengthy explanation again. It's probably some drug reference I'm not cool enough to know too. Fuck it. I'm not calling it that. Carry on.

3. The teams they've faced should be arrested for sucking out loud in public
Point differential is one of the better indicators for how good a team actually is... unless EVERY FUCKING TEAM THEY FACE SUCKS!

I'm sorry, that's a bit hyperbolic, but you'll see my point soon enough.

Of the teams they beat, the mighty Patriots really beat a group that has a combined -437 point differential (counting the Jets twice since they faced them twice). And no, that isn't because they had to face the Patriots, they don't have a +400 point differential.

The average team they beat is worse than the Broncos in point differential by about 5 points, so anyone can fuck right off with their "AFC West sucks" counterpoint. For real, spot them 5 points against the Broncos and that's who the Pats have beat, I can't stress that enough. Even the best team they beat by point differential (Cowboys +74) are themselves propped up by a weak schedule.

In the interest of fairness, including the 2 teams that beat them bumps it up to only -228. But in comparison the Chiefs faced a schedule of a +56 point differential. Quick maths, +56 > -228. Our schedule has been far harder.



So I respect their defense... but I also really don't. Their offense isn't worthy of real respect, we've faced several as good or better. This actually is a cupcake schedule and is worth pointing out. They are as battle tested as the Peace Corps.
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#2

Their defense is scared of speed as evidenced by the way they just played against the Texans. And the Texans done have near the speed we do. They also gave trouble containing mobile QBs and mahomes is plenty mobile to give them fits. Our defense has to lock down Edelman and white and that will be the toughest task for us.
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#3

(12-02-2019, 10:25 AM)tyecopeland Wrote:  Their defense is scared of speed as evidenced by the way they just played against the Texans. And the Texans done have near the speed we do. They also gave trouble containing mobile QBs and mahomes is plenty mobile to give them fits. Our defense has to lock down Edelman and white and that will be the toughest task for us.
I agree with this!!!  They will not be able to play man defense that has made them so successful against us.  Texans showed us a way to beat them and of course the Patriots will adjust, but we have more speed and better running backs than the Texans.  Focusing on Edelman took Brady out of his game, he played scared most of the game.

I hope we play Thompson more than McCoy, every time McCoy is out there all I catch myself doing is praying he doesn't fumble.

[Image: 57agPlO.png]
Pure blind luck... it's been protecting children from fire for centuries!
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#4

I'm not sure about all the love for Thompson. He had a nice final drive but until then he was not nearly as effective as McCoy.
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#5

(12-02-2019, 02:52 PM)DallasChief Wrote:  I'm not sure about all the love for Thompson. He had a nice final drive but until then he was not nearly as effective as McCoy.

Shady only had 10 yards on 5 carries, though he had a nice jog in TD. Most of hist good plays came in the passing game (3 rec, 20 yards)

Thompson is more explosive. Shady is shifty, you'll see him outright drop a fool with a little wiggle, but Darwin can make up 5 yards in a flash. I think Thompson is going to be a far more effective runner, particularly behind a somewhat suspect o-line. I just hope he can handle the workload and can be a decent receiver.
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#6

(12-02-2019, 02:52 PM)DallasChief Wrote:  I'm not sure about all the love for Thompson. He had a nice final drive but until then he was not nearly as effective as McCoy.
If you watch Thompson's tape... college highlights, etc.  You will see that he runs like Hunt.  I have wondered all year why he hasn't played, he is buried in the depth chart by runners that don't create holes, they just run in them.  Great backs in the league are creating the holes or are patient enough to wait for them to open. I honestly feel that Thompson can create holes and has the burst to take a short gain an make it much longer.

[Image: 57agPlO.png]
Pure blind luck... it's been protecting children from fire for centuries!
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#7

https://twitter.com/mattderrick/status/1...66592?s=20


Matt Derrick
@mattderrick
#Chiefs head coach Andy Reid says RB Damien Williams, CB Morris Claiborne and CB Rashad Fenton will be listed as out vs Patriots.
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#8

We only need one cb to cover Edelman. With a safety helping. Then we need our best coverage non cb to cover white.
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#9

Why not just have a CB cover white?
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#10

(12-06-2019, 03:33 PM)DallasChief Wrote:  Why not just have a CB cover white?

Because 2 are injured.
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