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NFL 2021 Draft Thread
#1

The NFL Draft is going to start Thursday April 29th. We're about 10 days away from knowing what rookies we have to look forward to in 2021 and beyond.

I've been spending a decent amount of my free time doing mock drafts on PFN's simulator. As I said elsewhere I like the trade system in their simulator, though I didn't use it in these drafts.

Anyway, here's 2 of my recent mock drafts and I'll break them down. I generally run 4 round mocks because  the Chiefs have 2 fourth rounders, it legit takes less than 5 minutes most of the time and I never trade up just because it's a real hassle to determine a fair value. I am less trade happy than I was when I first found this website.

HEAVY D DRAFT
In this draft I saw a lot of defensive value early, so I took it. Paye I've seen go to the Giants at 11 in a few national mocks and he fits the Spags DE mold. Bolton is a little less value and may not help the Chiefs as much as a better coverage LB might, but he's a tackling machine. Besides, OT value wasn't there at that point. You can always use more DBs which the Chiefs have done well at finding and developing talent there. Campbell is a tall (6'2"), lean, fast corner with great potential. Gillespie plays similar to Dirty Dan (hard hitter, better vs. run than pass) and would be an excellent fit in a similar role in the future. I could see us draft a large S and convert them to coverage LB too, though he plays bigger than he actually is (6'0", 210 lbs). I still ended up with solid OT prospects late in the 4th, though where these players rank varies wildly on different draft ranking services, but more on that later.


[Image: Heavy-D.jpg]


HEAVY O DRAFT
In this draft I saw more offensive value early. Fans often think of this year when it comes to the draft, but GMs tend to think beyond, which is exactly why I see OC as a potential big need this draft despite signing the serviceable Austin Blythe to a 1 year contract. Besides, Andy Reid likes to put the best 5 starters out there on offense instead of pigeon holing players as specific spots, so you could see Creed and Blythe on the field at the same time. I had really good options at OT in the 2nd as both Mayfield and Liam Eichenberg were still available. The Chiefs might trade back into the late 2nd if this were the case in real life and snag both. Brevin Jordan is kind of a Mahomes' wishlist pick, getting a guy that allows the team to run more 2 TE sets to help the run game without sacrificing much in the pass game as well as finding a legit replacement should Kelce miss time. Again I wanted to snag a mid round DB and at EDGE Ogundeji is a size / build fit with potential for a Spags D.

[Image: Heavy-Mahomes.jpg]

SUMMARY
I'd explain more about the players in these drafts, but the thing is I don't feel these are particularly realistic drafts. Most of these services at least partially base their rankings on conversations with actual scouts and they have more disagreement than ever.

The main problem I'm seeing is the OT market. OT is deep and quality this year, which is a great thing for the Chiefs who may snag a couple even, but apparently NFL scouts are not in agreement over what order to rank them.

I've seen a player (OT Sam Cosmi, Texas) be ranked 4th best OL one place and then as low as 17th on another. That's an extreme example, but there's a lot of variance in the rankings everywhere after the first couple guys. Some of the mid to late 2nd round OTs in these simulated mocks I've done (Liam Eichenberg, Dillon Radunz, Jalen Mayfield) I've seen go to us in the 1st round in national mocks or last into the 3rd in others. This throws off how the entire board will drop and might even be why the Chiefs find more value at a different position like LB or WR early.

Be prepared for a lot of "the Chiefs overdrafted player X" articles or that they went for a luxury pick over need, but I'm going to trust that the team is just valuing players differently than other teams and media and you can't base your draft too much on what other people think instead of what you think.

I feel strongly that this draft is either going to be a dream or nightmare for Brett Veach based on how the teams in front of us draft. It's also important to consider the Cheifs could still theoretically get a veteran tackle in FA (Okung, Fisher, Schwartz) or trade (Orlando Brown). I think we're more likely to trade up than down since we need quality more than quantity at this point besides just the fact that Veach tends to be aggressive anyway.
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Messages In This Thread
2021 Draft Thread - by asskickingboots - 04-18-2021, 02:50 AM
RE: 2021 Draft Thread - by tyecopeland - 04-18-2021, 05:49 PM
RE: 2021 Draft Thread - by mabbott - 04-19-2021, 08:02 AM
RE: 2021 Draft Thread - by asskickingboots - 04-20-2021, 11:31 AM
RE: 2021 Draft Thread - by asskickingboots - 05-01-2021, 08:10 AM
RE: 2021 Draft Thread - by NOLA - 05-01-2021, 10:58 AM
RE: 2021 Draft Thread - by Coach - 05-01-2021, 10:06 PM
RE: 2021 Draft Thread - by asskickingboots - 05-02-2021, 10:20 PM
RE: 2021 Draft Thread - by mabbott - 05-03-2021, 10:16 AM

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