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2022 Mock Draft Thread - asskickingboots - 03-23-2022

Well, time to start dishing out some mock drafts especially consider recent trade related news, so I thought I'd set up a separate thread for this. If anyone wants to post any mock drafts you'd like to post.

Chiefs Draft Capital


    Round 1, 29 overall (via Miami)
    Round 1, 30 overall
    Round 2, 50 overall (Via Miami)
    Round 2, 62 overall
    Round 3, 94 overall
    Round 3, 103 overall (Compensatory)
    Either Round 4, Pick 121 or Pick 125 (Miami owns both, one is going to KC in trade).
    Round 4, 135 overall
    Round 7, 233 overall (Hughes trade)
    Round 7, 243 overall (Durant trade)
    Round 7, 251 overall
    Round 7, 259 overall (Compensatory)


The Draft starts April 28th-30th


RE: 2022 Mock Draft Thread - asskickingboots - 03-23-2022

I often like to use PFN's Mock Draft Simulator to sort of pass time and educate myself on upcoming draft prospects. They already have today's trade on their simulator, so it's easier to imagine what the Chiefs might do with their new draft capital. I need to do more of these before I really feel better about my knowledge base, so I'm admittedly drafting at least partly on position.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

I'm only doing 4 rounds, though I may consider lessening it to 3 to make it easier on me. While I'm allowing trades I automatically refuse any involving AFC West rivals.

#29 CB Trent McDuffie, Washington
Trade with Lions 30 and 259 for 32 and 97
#32 WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas
#50 EDGE Boye Mafe, Minnesota
#62 TE Trey McBride, Colorado State
#94 EDGE Nik Bonitto, Oklahoma
#97 DT Travis Jones, Connecticut
#103 LB Desmond Clark, LSU
#121 OT Darian Kinnard, Kentucky
#135 CB Zyon McCollum, Sam Houston

A couple of my favorite picks that sometimes make it to the Chiefs in this went just before me. I might have liked to traded for one or the other, but settled on a CB I really like. Supposed to be a little light in the loafers, but McDuffie is explosive and mentally tough.

After that, the Lions traded with me to get a QB. I think this is somewhat realistic, just more likely to be a team with an early 2nd trying to get a QB with a 5th year option. Treylon Burks is who I would have picked at 30, he's a beast. Seen him dominate in person last year.

Boye Mafe is a guy I might consider at 29/30. Athletic freak. Little raw, but still played really well.

Trey McBride was a value pick. McBride might be the best TE in the draft, though another was taken shortly before. Good and consistent receiver that can block.

From here I'm drafting based purely on position to be plainly blunt. I did almost get a RB I actually wanted at 103, Tyler Badie out of Mizzou, but he went at 102. And this is a huge advantage of having so many picks, the Chiefs could take some shots on players not necessarily at positions of need.


RE: 2022 Mock Draft Thread - asskickingboots - 04-01-2022

Late on a Friday at work by myself, so I did a couple mocks for fun. I just had a mock draft that presented a situation I think realistically could happen to the Chiefs.

I'm a big fan of Oregon's EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, and not just because the dude has a bitching name. So, naturally I've been watching to see how far he drops in these mocks. Sometimes he goes as high as 1st, but randomly I saw him drop out of the top 10.

I jumped up to 11 to trade with the Washington Red... Team... Commanders. Note, that would realistically take two late 1sts (29 + 30 = 1,260 points on a draft value chart vs. 1,250 for 11) or the equivalent and in the simulation picks #29 and #30 were enough to make my dream a reality.

If I were to execute a trade like this IRL I would likely move to 10 instead to get that 5th year option and avoid the risk of losing out on the player I wanted. Also to fleece the Jets, because they clearly don't know what they're doing at any times because they're the Jets.

This is one of the real values in having so many picks. I don't really think Kayvon or Aiden Hutchinson are slipping out of the top 10, but if they do or maybe a player like George Karlaftis drops further than expected, the Chiefs don't have to wait for a player like that to drop to 29 or 30.

Super aggressive Veach is often the best type of Veach there is.


RE: 2022 Mock Draft Thread - tyecopeland - 04-02-2022

I always enjoy your mock drafts and breakdowns of potential draft picks. I pay zero attention to college football so I never know anything about the players.


RE: 2022 Mock Draft Thread - asskickingboots - 04-03-2022

(04-02-2022, 12:35 PM)tyecopeland Wrote:  I always enjoy your mock drafts and breakdowns of potential draft picks. I pay zero attention to college football so I never know anything about the players.

Thanks.

I don't pretend to be some true expert or have my own big board like some fans, I just do this for fun and to educate myself about incoming players. Incidentally, I find it really helps my fantasy game. If I were just screaming this out into the ether and no one heard it I would probably still do some mocks.

I also don't watch as much college ball as I used to. Used to be if there was a game on I was watching regardless of the teams, at the very least as background noise. Now I'm a cable cutter and just occasionally watch some games on ESPN+ or Paramount+ (carries most Chiefs away games, pretty much anything on CBS).

Most of what I'm learning I'm learning through resources online like scouting reports, or more rarely looking up game tape when I'm really interested in a player.


RE: 2022 Mock Draft Thread - asskickingboots - 04-10-2022

Just as much a reference for me as anything, since I put in the work I put in some extra so I could share it, here is a list of how much our draft picks are worth in each round going by a Draft Value Chart. Twelve overall picks, Eight in the top 135.

Draft Pick Value
Round, Overall Pick = Value

1st, 29 = 640
1st, 30 = 620
2nd, 50 = 400
2nd, 62 = 284
3rd, 94 = 124
3rd, 103 = 88
4th, 121 = 52
4th, 135 = 38.5
7th, 233 = 2.1
7th, 243 = 1.1
7th, 251 = 0.65
7th, 259 = 0.2

Total "Ricky Williams Trade" Value
2,250, which is about the same as the 3rd overall (2,200)

As you can see the 7th rounders are virtually worthless for trade value. I had to calculate the last pick's value myself, it wasn't even on the chart  All 4 of them combined are worth about 4 points which is the equivalent of pick 221, the last pick of round 6 this year.

If Veach needs to sweeten a deal he'll likely have to dig into next year's picks. The Chiefs still have all of their 2023 picks as well as Miami's 4th and 6th rounders.

Packaged Value
Here is what many possible pick packages could result in. I wasn't trying to have a complete list when I started typing this out, I got closer than I thought I would, tbh. Of course in real life usually a team has to slightly overpay to trade up unless the other team doesn't see value at the pick and just wants out without any better options.

Chiefs Pick Package = Point Value = Approximate Equivalent Pick

Packages with First Round Picks
29 + 30 = 1,260 = Pick 11 (1,250)
29 + 50 = 1,040 = Pick 15 (1,050)
30 + 50 = 1,020 = Pick 16 (1,000)
29 + 62 = 924 = Pick 17 (950)
30 + 62 = 904 = Pick 18 (900)
29 + 94 = 764 = Pick 23 (760)
30 + 94 = 744 = Pick 24 (740)
29 + 103 = 728 = Pick 25 (720)
30 + 103 = 708 = Pick 26 (700)
29 + 121 = 692 = Pick 26 (700)
30 + 121 = 672 = Pick 28 (660)

Packages with Second Round Picks
50 + 62 = 684 = Pick 27 (680)
50 + 94 = 524 = Pick 38 (520)
50 + 103 = 488 = Pick 41 (490)
62 + 94 = 408 = Pick 49 (410)
62 + 103 = 372 = Pick 53 (370)

Packages with Third Round Picks
94 + 103 = 212 = Pick 76 (210)
94 + 121 = 176 = Pick 83 (175)
94 + 135 = 163 = Pick 85 (165)
103 + 121 = 140 = Pick 90 (140)
103 + 135 = 127 = Pick 93 (128)

Fourth Round Picks
121 + 135 = 91 = Pick 102 (92)

Summary
Veach has the ammo to do whatever the fuck he wants, and I am truly excited about this. I just demonstrated about 22 fairly realistic trade scenarios without including any additional throw-in picks, any players, or any trade back scenarios.

I haven't been this jacked about the draft going in since probably 2008 when the Chiefs had 2 Firsts, 1 Second, and 3 Thirds, a draft that resulted in multiple key players including Jamaal Charles, Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr, and Branden Albert. That draft positively shaped the Chiefs for years.

Perhaps the biggest flop of that group was the number 5 overall pick, Glenn Dorsey, who wasn't a scheme fit when the team switched to a 3-4 his second year. That #5 overall pick is more valuable on this chart than the first 3 picks the Chiefs have this year combined (1,700 vs. 1,660) which can demonstrate how much additional value extra picks, even of lesser value, can be for building a roster especially with a reasonable price tag on a number of players.