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@ Bucs - SB LV - asskickingboots - 01-25-2021

Once again wanted to get a thread up nearly immediately. Let's get the basics out of the way and get the talk rolling. I'm also too amped to sleep, so I just as well drop some knowledge on ya.

Be sure to use this thread as a place to drop cool hype / breakdown / preview videos, memes, and articles. I'm going to ingest a disgusting amount of media over the next couple weeks just like last year.

We've seen this game already
Chiefs dominated the Bucs early in Week 12, particularly Tyreek having a career game in the first damn quarter for 203 yards. Yes, the Chiefs only won 27-24, but the Chiefs entered the 4th quarter with a 27-10 lead.

The Bucs legit did try to make a game of it, but if you look at the win probability according to ESPN it was never below an 84.7% since a few minutes into the 3rd quarter.

The Chiefs just don't like to shoot all of their bullets to "win more". This is why the media loves teams like the Ravens, but often fail to see the overwhelming dominance of the Chiefs since it doesn't always show up in the final stats besides the only one that matters... WINS. I like point differential as a baseline, but I know better than to rely exclusively on it.

I'm reviewing the highlights from that Chiefs Bucs game right now and remembering just how brutal that game was early. The Chiefs were up 17-0 midway through the 2nd, driving in the red zone when the Bucs got a lucky strip sack recovery. Before that the Bucs had 4 drives for 39 yards vs. 5 drives for 313 yards for the Chiefs. They were exceedingly fortunate their deficit wasn't larger as the Chiefs were inches from having a TD instead of a FG and easily in FG range again. They could have easily been down 28-0.

After that the Chiefs milked the clock like *insert crude euphemism* and ended with damn near a whole NFL quarter more TOP (36:46 vs. 23:13, a +13:33 advantage). Tom Brady did his best Garbage Time Philip Rivers impersonation (or Pad Stafford if you prefer) for the second half, but it was never really in doubt and it was clear who the better team was.

We've seen what Bye Week Andy Reid does to opponents
BWAR is a very real phenomenon, statistical anomaly, and force to be dealt with. BWAR is 24-3 post bye including playoffs as a head coach. BWAR is 7-0 with Mahomes as his QB. BWAR's offense scores 35.7 PPG in those games with Mahomes, even after being dragged down by the Browns game where he was rolling until he was knocked out of the game.

BWAR is gonna rock some shit in SB LV.

Old narratives die hard
"The Bucs have a better point differential! The Chiefs suck because they win close games!"
154% of their "advantage" in point differential comes from a 47 to 7 late December blowout against the Lions. Pantsing the Lions long after they already fired their coach doesn't make you cool. That's something losers think. Go think like a loser elsewhere.

It's not like a +111 PD is a sign of weakness, and if you took away week 17 that would also make PD much closer. The Chiefs play situational football exceedingly well in most cases, so get out of here with your BCS and Ken Pom rankings.

"Tampa's D will crush Mahomes!"
Again, look at the previous game between the two, 543 yards even with the team turning it off early.

Stylistically the Bucs are highly dependent on blitzing (2nd most plays of 5+ rushers in the NFL). Blitzing means either man coverage, soft zones, or some kind of shifting cloud coverage. If you take guys out of coverage or otherwise put them in a positional disadvantage with our weapons it's over. Kelce, Hill, and co. will win their 1 on 1s almost instantly in many cases and Mahomes destroys you.

I'm sure an updated advanced stat will pop up somewhere in the lead up to SB LV, but every time I've ever seen Mahomes vs. pressure stats it shows he's actually better than if you don't blitz.

If you don't blitz him you lose. If you do blitz him he'll just be more brutal when he does connect.

"Bills suck at running and still got 129 rushing yards! Chiefs' Run D SUCKS!"
I've explained previously how on a ypc basis the Chiefs' Run D is actually average, but anybody pointing this out to you needs to know 2 things.

1) The Bucs can't run for dick. Bucs are tied for 6th worst ypc (4.1 ypc) which is worse than the Bills and they too basically abandoned their run game (4th fewest rush attempts). I don't think Spags is a masterclass DC, but he seems to know how to shut down one dimensional offenses.

2) 88 yards was Josh Allen on scrambles and designed QB runs. Including the playoffs this year, Tom Brady has 36 rushes for 6 yards. I do not have that backwards. His ypc is 0.17, though I should note that rounding up is very generous. I'm pretty sure the New Madrid fault would beat him in a footrace.

"Tom Brady shines the brightest under big lights."
4 of Mahomes' 5 best performances by QB rating this season were against playoff teams, including the Bucs. The only playoff team he had below a 100 QB rating was the Saints (92.0). You cannot seriously feed me the line like that is the edge for Brady considering all of PM15's accomplishments already. It's frightening the pace he is on.

Besides, is that really the narrative we're going with after TB12 tried desperately to give the NFCCG to Green Bay with 3 straight drives ending with a pick? Thought not.

"Tom Brady is the GOAT!"
Not for long.

RE: @ Bucs - SB LV - tyecopeland - 01-25-2021

Needless to say, I'm excited. I wanted green bay but thats more so because my buddy is a big fan of the packers not so much that the packers are an easier matchup.

Also, fuck tom brady.

RE: @ Bucs - SB LV - DallasChief - 01-25-2021

Bad news about Fisher. Is there any chance of Schwartz playing?

RE: @ Bucs - SB LV - tyecopeland - 01-25-2021

(01-25-2021, 09:43 AM)DallasChief Wrote:  Bad news about Fisher.  Is there any chance of Schwartz playing?

I'd say very little.

RE: @ Bucs - SB LV - DallasChief - 01-25-2021

TB has a good pass rush, so that's going to suck.

RE: @ Bucs - SB LV - asskickingboots - 01-25-2021

Yeah, Fish being out doesn't help and the Bucs do have a great front 7.

Like I pointed out though even with their talented front they still have to blitz to get the pressure they want and I think though there is the potential for some communication errors with someone else in generally speaking I think Mahomes and his quick release / scramble ability / adjustments at the line makes the offensive line look better.

We're playing with backups already and we didn't allow a sack in either playoff game. Granted some of these backups could start for several teams, but Mahomes is a huge factor in their success as is our great overall coaching.

RE: @ Bucs - SB LV - mabbott - 01-25-2021

I agree the Fisher being out sucks... during the game Remmers looked great. I am hoping the two weeks prep time will help him learn all of the schemes and be ready to go.

And I concur with Fuck Tom Brady

RE: @ Bucs - SB LV - asskickingboots - 01-26-2021

God bless all of the dumbass talking heads feeding the Chiefs motivation. I never watch Skip Bayless because I in no way want to support his continued existence, yet alone as a media figure, but as I've heard elsewhere after picking the Browns and Bills to defeat the Chiefs he is back to say they'll lose to the Bucs.

Skip decided to inform PM15 he's lucky to have won a SB at all, instead of realizing he was a DE lining up offsides away from going to 3 SBs in his first 3 seasons as a starter. Besides, Tom Brady never was lucky to win a SB? How about his first?

So I guess the question is how many fingers will Mahomes count to in response to this slight?

RE: @ Bucs - SB LV - DallasChief - 01-26-2021

When the Chiefs were down 9-0, Cowherd tweeted out that the Bills are a much better team than last years Titans and Texans team and they you can't spot them points.

RE: @ Bucs - SB LV - asskickingboots - 01-26-2021

(01-26-2021, 11:25 AM)DallasChief Wrote:  When the Chiefs were down 9-0, Cowherd tweeted out that the Bills are a much better team than last years Titans and Texans team and they you can't spot them points.

Lol! Exactly. I actually agree that the Bills were better than the Titans or Texans from last year, but so were the Niners and we spotted them 10 going into the 4th.

Rather than admit he was wrong last year Skip just said the better team lost. This is part of why I do not watch any show with him or Cowherd or any of a number of chucklefucks out there paid to be consistently wrong because it gets people to tune in and yell at their TV.

Never thought I'd become such a fan of Nick Wright though. Since Mahomes has blossomed he's been a grade A homer because the homerism is justified.