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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-17-2019, 10:09 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (7)

Frank Clark
Tyreek Hill
Chris Jones
Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes
Mecole Hardman (as a returner)

I think Frank Clark has played like a pro bowler lately, but including earlier in the year when he wasn't I find it hard to believe he made it. Must be a down year for defensive ends or too many edge rushers are listed as LBs.

Butker, Schwartz, and Honey Badger are my snubs, but if I'm being honest at some point you want other teams to get some players in there. Chiefs already have the second most players in the AFC behind Baltimore who has 12!

I'm not complaining though. I don't want any of our guys playing in the damned Pro Bowl game anyway.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-17-2019, 08:03 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (12)

Sorry this is a bit late, but I've got this amateur side gig doing light specialty construction as a glazier that I've been letting get in the way. A man can dream of the big time.

Also, my computer restarted overnight when I had this half wrote, so here's my half-assed, basically self made second hand version of this.

Their Offense is Offensive
The Bears offense stinks. For the next 20 years every time we face the Bears we'll be obligated to mentioned that they could have had Mahomes. Just how bad are they? By yards per game they're basically the Broncos, 1 yard less per game.

There is a big debate among their fans about who is to blame; Trubisky, Nagy, or their o-line. Many are already fantasizing about their next head coach, so maybe we can get Nagy back New England style just as someone likely poaches Bieniemy this offseason.

They've got some pieces, but they still seem worse than the sum of their parts.

Their Defense is... Defensive?
On the flip side, that defense is still very good.

I think there's a general perception that they're not as good as last year. Truth is they are only slightly worse in points, actually better than the Ravens both for points allowed per game and yards per play, they just aren't as reliant on big plays (sacks, INTs, fumbles) and therefore not an exciting fantasy defense.

How Good are Da Bears then?
Criminally average. Their record is 7-7. Jeff Fisher gets mildly aroused watching them play, at half-mast you might say. It's embarrassing how average they are. That great defense is being wasted by the offense. They are so average as a team they're +3 on net points. Not +3 per game, which would be pretty close, but +3 on the season.

Now, an average NFL team that's motivated, overlooked, talented, that matches up well, and has a good gameplan can beat a far superior team. But that's only if the superior team lets them.

This is the Chiefs game to lose, but they damn well better not. I don't think they will, they look like they've been having a ton of fun as a team and they're on a roll. With a little help the Chiefs are still easily in the running for a bye.

Go Bills!

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Posted by: mabbott
12-13-2019, 02:53 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (5)

If we could get him on the cheap... I wouldn't mind having him to help out.

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Posted by: tyecopeland
12-12-2019, 08:55 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (12)

I don't think this style is going to last but Harbaugh has done a masterful job of scheming an offense ro Lamar this year and until defenses adjust lamar is a threat. He's definitely the mvp this year and he has gotten better as a passer but it's not his strength despite his attempts to deny that hes a runner first.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-10-2019, 08:50 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (35)

I spent way too much time deciding which pun using the word Lock I would use in the title. I'm not proud of it, but I apologize to no one.

The Longest Road
One of the most common things I've heard from Chiefs fans since April, especially fans that root for Mizzou, was a generalized fear that after 87 attempts to find a QB since Fivehead that Horseteeth may have finally found a QB in Drew Lock. It only took from Brock Osweiler to Paxton Lynch to Tevor Siemian to Case Keenum to Joe Flacco to Brandon Allen to finally Drew Lock. This was absolutely comical for a long time. About the only person who didn't get a start was Chad "spraying my AK" Kelly.

I could spend the entirety of my free time this week cataloguing their failures at QB in that time. I'll settle for making fun of Oz.

Brock, who is tall in case you never heard, went from backup to starting to benched to on another team to benched on that team to traded with free shit attached just to save the cap hit to cut from the fucking Browns to back on the Broncos but benched to starting again only to get benched again to out of Denver again and eventually out of the league all in the time span of since 2015. You could make your own Cleveland Browns crossed out name jersey just out of Brock's status with the Broncos. This man killed the last great years of the Broncos defense, but he was not without co-conspirators.

But after just 2 games their fans really like Lock, so that's cool. I'd like him better than garbage being streamed directly into my mouth too.

About That Lock Kid
I believe I said this here, I know I said it elsewhere, but as a Mizzou fan I agree with the sentiment that we do need to worry about Lock, at least long term.

It's not just because he's a Mizzou guy either. I never was worried about the likes of Blaine Gabbert as a pro, he was the Mitch Trubisky type of pro prospect that just checked a lot of boxes. Lock isn't that type of guy. He's got a cannon arm and moxie. That's enough to at least give him a high ceiling as a pro.

Lock gives the Broncos fans hope after beating a Texans team they had no right to beat and looking good in the process, but if there's one thing I love it's seeing the Chiefs crush the hopes of division rivals. I'm glad they have hope. It makes this game mean something and it put our guys on notice that this is not the exact same Broncos team that rolled over 30-6 at their place to Matt Moore. Just mostly the same.

No, the Pats did not outplay us
I did a lot of driving for work yesterday, which means I got to hear a lot of overreactions to all things NFL, but especially the Chiefs.

Over and over I was educated on how the Pats would have won if not for the refs, which is stupid because the N'Keal Harry would be TD and the Kelce fumble that might have been a TD were on the same drive and the Pats still scored 3. At best that's a 4 point swing in a 7 point game and people are acting like it's 14 points stolen. Leave the double accounting to the politicians.

It also ignores several calls that didn't go our way like the very first DPI call that looked very ticky tack to me in real time (haven't seen it since), at least twice they should have called unnecessary roughness on hits on Mahomes, among other things.

Boger and his crew are terrible, this is well documented, it's almost like complaining about the weather. Both teams had to deal with it.

No, our offense doesn't suck
The other common thing I heard was how our offense is just so bad, like, omigosh, how are we supposed to win a SB like this! This might be an even dumber take.

If you want to tell me the offense looks a little out of sync and could play better, that's fine, but most of the people weren't stopping at that. They were jumping to "injuries have permanently ruined Mahomes" and other doom and gloom scenarios about how we could never beat a team like the Ravens with this offense... which we totally already did. We've beaten Lamar Jackson twice, which is more than the AFC North has.

The more reasonable understanding to me is simply that the whole offense has seldom played together this year and haven't really had time to gel, especially not without something ailing the major players. Also with the defense playing better we don't need 430 yards every damn game to have a shot.

We have the 4th best scoring offense in the league and they aren't even playing their A game. Pretty sure teams have won a SB before with figurative shit on offense, I think we can back off the ledge.

We only put up 23 points, damn near arena ball numbers if you ask Herm Edwards, but you can't forget this is the number one scoring defense we just did this against. I know they aren't as good as their stats indicate, I made that case myself, but that doesn't mean that defense sucks!

Locked it Down
The Chiefs put "The West is Not Enough" on most of their division gear. I don't think the season is a failure if we don't make the SB, but it would be a disappointment. At some point you've got to take the next step.

The Chiefs could end up with anywhere from the 1 to 4 seed. A bye would be immense, but I think the 3 seed is the bare minimum needed to have a solid shot at a SB run.

No matter what we get a home game, but being the 3 means we would likely get to face New England again and I think they're the weakest of the 4 likely division winners. We just took their best shot, including multiple gadget plays, a blocked punt, and fuck all else. They don't have another gear to go to anymore.

We could really use this win and just plain win out through February.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-02-2019, 09:06 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (33)

Commence obligatory grumble about always having to travel to face the Patriots in the regular season due to scheduling quirks... grumble, grumble. Can't wait for our headsets to cut out on a key 3rd down.

[Image: patriots-memes.jpg]

Last week I pointed out how the Raiders weren't legitimate because of their massive negative point differential which just took a swan dive into the asphalt. The Patriots on the other hand have a massive positive point differential, +177, second best in the league behind Baltimore.

Make no mistake, despite losing to the Texans and looking inept on offense most of the game, that's still a real good team, but that point differential is smoke and mirrors getting to feast on some weak opponents.

The Patriots have an average offense (Ranked 14 in YPG), yet they are top 5 in points scored. There are 3 main reasons for this:

1. Their defense is damn good.
Fewest points allowed, 2nd fewest yards, 2nd fewest yards per play. I'm not going to go into this too much because I think elite offenses GENERALLY find ways to exploit elite defenses, or at least push them farther than most. Also, see point #3.

We know they'll try to take away our 2 best things, so that means covering deep and bracketing Kelce in the middle. Don't be surprised if the running game goes off on them because of it, ESPECIALLY if we see more Darwin Thompson (mancrush). They have the 6th best run defense by yards per game, but are about average on yards per carry (4.4 ypc).

So, this is their legitimate reason for being good 'n shit. The others are why it's not all it's cracked up to be.

2. Teams play dumb against them.
This is something that's happened in our favor a few times this year including the Ravens and I should coin some cute term for it, but teams often make dumb mistakes because they're so worried about points that haven't been scored yet they leave points off the board and swing momentum against them.

It'd be the 1st quarter, maybe even the first drive, and teams will opt not to take a chipshot FG or pull out some "that was never gonna work" trick play ending in disaster because they have to keep up with some not actualized but perceived score.

"You gotta go for it against Brady" is the logic, but what it tends to result in is less points early, a widening deficit by mid game, but rarely it allows a team not on their level to keep up late into the game. You likely win if you roll sevens all game, but the odds of you rolling sevens all game against a disciplined team are pretty fucking slim.

My philosophy is simple. Early in the game, you take the points. Yes, even against Brady or prime Manning. I'm not saying you punt from the 40 on 4th and inches, but I guarantee you if I had the time to go through decades of footage it would be easy to show all of the times teams took themselves out of games playing against big names because they're chasing phantom points and just how rarely this actually works.

There we go, I'll call it "Chasing the Phantom", and nobody will know what the hell I'm talking about when I do so I'll have to go into this lengthy explanation again. It's probably some drug reference I'm not cool enough to know too. Fuck it. I'm not calling it that. Carry on.

3. The teams they've faced should be arrested for sucking out loud in public
Point differential is one of the better indicators for how good a team actually is... unless EVERY FUCKING TEAM THEY FACE SUCKS!

I'm sorry, that's a bit hyperbolic, but you'll see my point soon enough.

Of the teams they beat, the mighty Patriots really beat a group that has a combined -437 point differential (counting the Jets twice since they faced them twice). And no, that isn't because they had to face the Patriots, they don't have a +400 point differential.

The average team they beat is worse than the Broncos in point differential by about 5 points, so anyone can fuck right off with their "AFC West sucks" counterpoint. For real, spot them 5 points against the Broncos and that's who the Pats have beat, I can't stress that enough. Even the best team they beat by point differential (Cowboys +74) are themselves propped up by a weak schedule.

In the interest of fairness, including the 2 teams that beat them bumps it up to only -228. But in comparison the Chiefs faced a schedule of a +56 point differential. Quick maths, +56 > -228. Our schedule has been far harder.

So I respect their defense... but I also really don't. Their offense isn't worthy of real respect, we've faced several as good or better. This actually is a cupcake schedule and is worth pointing out. They are as battle tested as the Peace Corps.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
11-24-2019, 07:32 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (23)

Every time the Raiders have enjoyed mild to moderate success over the past 2 decades the amount of time it takes them to go from a lowly dejected fanbase to "we're going to avenge the tuck rule game" is about a 2 game win-streak. It's no surprise that the fans at least felt all they had to do to beat the then 3-7 Jets was show up.

Reality is the Raiders just aren't that damn good, yet alone as good as they hope. They barely beat a handful of middling NFL teams, every win was by a single score. When they've lost they've gotten crushed, only one loss was by less than 18.

The Raiders have a winning record and still have a massive -56 point differential. Chiefs have +52. The Chiefs have been incredibly unlucky to be 7-4 and the Raiders have been blessed to be 6-5.

And yet in their syphilitic minds the Raiders probably thought they had things lined up exactly where they wanted them. I literally saw their fans lament they "controlled their own destiny" and fucked it up... it was barely over halfway through the season!

Turns out losing 34-3 to a team with a losing record does a lot to bring reality crashing back down. Suddenly they're remembering that Carr still sucks. Also, and I don't know why people didn't talk about this more, their defense is still trash.

The Chiefs Achilles heel is supposed to be their defense, but Oakland is worse or far worse in most categories including yards per play (5.9 vs. 5.6), opposing 3rd down conversion rate (47% vs. 37%), opposing QB rating (102.8 vs. 87.2), sacks, big plays given up, and just about every other efficiency metric besides yards per run. And if anything the Chiefs defense is trending upward.

I don't think I need to justify the Chiefs offense being better either. It's science.

But the most important thing is just plain winning this division home game. Chiefs win this their closest rival is 2 games back with 4 games to go and a tiebreaker over them. That's essentially a lock.

So Chiefs, please, go out there and make your marketing team send me an invoice for playoff game tickets already.

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Posted by: Chi-town_Chief
11-19-2019, 11:56 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (4)

He hasn't posted in a while. Everything ok with him?

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Posted by: asskickingboots
11-14-2019, 01:22 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (25)

This pretty well marks the anniversary of the concerted effort by the NFL to screw the Chiefs by moving a planned game against the Rams from Mexico City to LA because they didn't believe a surface could be re-sodded in time, despite the fact that is routine.

If you believe in NFL conspiracy theories, which I believe in some yet far from all, it'd be pretty easy to see what you want to believe across a wide gamut of circumstances in that game.

Now, this is the NFL's "make good" for that shitshow. Instead of facing the Rams it's now a division rival that couldn't hope to sell out a youth soccer complex without the aid of opposing fans.

Playing the Chargers on a neutral site is probably a benefit to them compared to their home turf. You'll have random people that just want to see American football first hand, fans of uninvolved teams, and maybe even the interest of some Chargers fans that just want an excuse to travel.

Despite the fast start the AFC West is starting to right itself and catch up to the Chiefs. If the Chargers win they'll be just a game back and the Raiders are only a half game back. As such, this game is vitally important for the Chiefs to continue their recent dominance of the division.

Despite that the Raiders just recently beat the Chargers, I think the Chargers are a more legit team. Not just because of perceived talent, but because the Chargers are +13 in point differential while the Raiders are -32 despite having a winning record.

After this week will be a much needed bye week, maybe we can look forward to some players getting healed up with a week off.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
11-14-2019, 10:58 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (1)

Thought I'd create a general thread early for Black Friday so we can hear any plans you may have or good deals you'd like to brag about share with us.

The main things I'm on the lookout for are:
A smart TV for my sister (not a gift, she just needs a new one)
Pretty much any Milwaukee tools, but particularly lighting and batteries
A radio for my workshop
A starter AR or a quality pistol on sale, either solely for target shooting... not really expecting you guys to know much about that.

The only things I've seen so far in my limited searching is TVs, looking at a 65" 4K TCL for $450 or a 49" Samsung QLED for $600. I'm not sure how much my sis wants to spend, but I'm using those deals as kind of a baseline for everything else I see.

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