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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-23-2020, 05:29 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (20)

I apologize that I couldn't think of a synonym for "game" that starts with a P.

The 13-1 Chiefs are all but mathematically assured the #1 seed, but will still likely play their starters for one more week to seal the deal. The 4-10 Falcons get to be the last sad lot to try and beat them.

The Falcons have a surprisingly decent point differential (+2) despite their losing record, but +37 of it came in a hilarious 43-6 drubbing of the then actively deflating Raiders after we put them in their place. The Raiders have lost every game since then against real NFL teams not named the Jets who they beat by a whopping 3 points.

If you take away that one game, suddenly the Falcons would be basically in the same boat as the also 4-10 Panthers (-33) and that seems about right.

The Falcons are an average offense with some excellent wideouts that are highly dependent on big plays. They have the 4th most 20+ passing plays behind the Chiefs (duh), Bills, and Texans. They clearly aren't as efficient as the Chiefs, who average far more yards per pass (7.4 vs. 8.2), a far better passer (91.2 vs. 110.6), and of course a better TD to INT ratio (26:14 vs. 36:5). It's feast or famine with them and the Chiefs pass D is their strength, 10th ranked despite leading in most games.

The Falcons defense is a little more on the worse side of average, but trash against the pass. 2nd most yards given up through the air. Their Rush D is considerably better and ranked 9th, but that's only because teams don't run on them (2nd fewest rushing attempts against) while in reality being pretty average (4.4 ypc, ranked 16th). Obviously, the Chiefs offense is built to destroy even good secondaries.

This is not a favorable matchup for the Falcons beyond the fact that they just are not in the same class as the Chiefs in overall quality.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-15-2020, 06:18 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (31)

The Chiefs stand alone atop the standings.

The Steelers lost again, this time more convincingly to the Bills. The AFC East has gifted the Chiefs 3 wins, plus another here. What a blessing! And the Steelers still have to face the Bengals which should be manageable, the Colts which should be tough sledding, and the Browns who would collectively sacrifice their first born children to fulfill their slim hopes at a division title.

Now it's just the Chiefs at 12-1, #2 scoring offense, #8 scoring defense, #1 point differential (+122), and an MVP player continuing to do MVP things while leading a squad of elite players. The Chiefs control their destiny and appear destined to further secure their dynasty.

Who could dare oppose such a force?

The Saints at 10-3, #7 scoring offense, #4 scoring defense, #3 point differential (+103), and a beast leading them that is an all-time great at QB... unless he doesn't. Drew Brees status for this game is the biggest question mark of really any question mark we've seen all season.

Without Brees the team just lost to the Eagles piloted by a rookie QB. Mind you, Taysom Hill did pretty good, it may not be as simple as getting Brees back and everything being better, but it must have been a bitter pill to see a run first QB tear up the Saints after recent weeks watching Hill do this to opposing defenses.

With Hill it's a run first team that can pass in spots while leaning on their defense. With Brees it's a pass first team that can gash you with the run for huge chunks. It's still a respectable team without Brees, but he changes the complexion of this game immensely.

This is a tough game, but unsurprisingly the Chiefs are favorites and I think they would be even if Brees were healthy. But nobody thinks this is going to be easy, and a bored championship re-run can easily get knocked in the teeth by a team that just had their own rude awakening.

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Posted by: DallasChief
12-13-2020, 07:16 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (19)

......had had average size boobs she still would have been hot. JMO.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-08-2020, 11:05 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (13)

Miami will always have a fond place in the hearts of Chiefs fans and with the team clenching a playoff berth perhaps thinking postseason is appropriate. But if the Chiefs want the easiest path back to Florida, Raymond James Stadium this time, they've got to keep winning and see another Steelers loss.

The Dolphins have kind of been an afterthought even as they've gotten off to a surprising 8-4 record, overshadowed no longer by the Patriots but by the 9-3 Bills that beat them earlier in the year. But perhaps that isn't fair. The Dolphins have a far better point differential (+91 vs. +27) and have gotten better as the year has went on. Are they the more legit team from the AFC East?

I think Miami is a competent team. I don't think they're as good as their record and point differential though. They haven't had an easy schedule... they'd had the easiest, at least by combined opponents' winning record.

Two of their wins and +41 points of their differential have came against the Jets and they have played all the last place AFC teams. They really only have one quality win, a 28-17 victory over the Rams (8-4) where they were outgained 145 vs. 471 in total yards, but they lost every other game against a team that has a winning record now.

The weirdest part was switching from Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, a veteran so Cagey he's like Nicolas Cage in Deadfall, to rookie QB Tua Tagavaloa in the middle of the team's winning streak. Tua has looked good because the team has been winning, but it's not like he's lit the statsheet on fire.

Miami is an average team that's gotten some breaks including some breaks in the schedule. They aren't bad. They aren't that good either. That's a hell of an improvement over last year, they should be proud.

Meanwhile I see a lot of national talking heads talking about how the Chiefs offense struggled... after they had 447 total yards and zero turnovers against the Broncos.

Nearly 450 yards isn't struggling for anyone except the best offense. They just easily could have and should have had more points. Tyreek Hill had 3 surefire TDs alone that almost or did actually happen (the failed no-challenge, the backflip play with the penalty bringing it back, and another wide open play where he failed to track the ball).

I don't know if it's invincible ignorance, incompetence, the desire for a dumbass hawt taek, or hopefulness on the parts of these media types to downplay the Chiefs offense any time they have less than 25 points, but it's as hilarious as it is pathetic.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-01-2020, 09:12 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (7)

The last time the Chiefs faced the Broncos they actually had rostered QBs. They even had their golden child, their QBotF, Drew Lock. The Chiefs rolled them 43-16 in Denver. That's just one point's difference (27) than the point differential the Saints put on them (28) without the luxury of having a QB.

Obviously, the Broncos QB situation is going to be somehow improved over last week, and if anything they were as mistreated as a $2 hooker by the league, but there's no way to avoid mentioning it. It's too funny and everyone knows they weren't going to beat the Saints no matter what anyway, even without Brees.

I think as amazing at it sounds our already avenged loss to the Raiders might be the singular and signature Andy Reid weird loss of the year. I don't think he's looking past anyone now, especially a division foe.

Not too much reason to get into advanced stats. The Chiefs have a +110 point differential and the Broncos have -89. There's no comparison to be had.

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Posted by: tyecopeland
11-27-2020, 10:18 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (15)

I've got no statistical analysis to provide. But I believe Mahomes evens the record against brady.

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Posted by: Razorchief
11-16-2020, 06:52 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (13)

Let's get this party started.

Reid already getting it going. Pissed at what Raiders did after the game at Arrowhead

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Posted by: asskickingboots
11-16-2020, 06:52 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (10)

Andy Reid off a Bye
The Stupid Roomba Stadium
There's a lot going on here.

Obviously the Raiders aren't a bad team. I still think they're frauds though. They might be a legit playoff team, not a real contender.

So, what's the difference? Just look at the point differential category.

The Chiefs are 8-1 with the best point differential in the NFL at +103. The Raiders are 6-3 with a point differential of +14, slightly above average so their record is somewhat fortunate for them. Before they beat up on the Broncos last weekend by 25 points that means they were -11. They haven't looked the part of a contender even in most of their wins.

Advanced stats show this too. DVOA has the Chiefs ranked 1st in offense and the Raiders ranked a respectable 12th. However, defensively the Chiefs are 13th and the Raiders are 30th. Total team DVOA puts the Chiefs at 3 which is the best in the AFC and the Raiders at 22nd.

Simply put the Raiders are somewhere between a mirage and lucky, and it's high time they get put down back where they belong.

Also, I'm a little pissed because my fiancee planned a trip to Vegas for us to go to this game and Covid took that away from me. Fuck you, Covid!

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Posted by: asskickingboots
11-03-2020, 09:47 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (11)

Fantasy football players are likely well aware of Christian McCaffrey's absence much of this season due to injury. This game potentially marks his return to football.

The Panthers offense has been substandard without him, but they have not been entirely incompetent. They still are surprisingly efficient in a number of areas. RB Mike Davis still is averaging 4.2 ypc, which is okay. Teddy Bridgewater has been efficient and overall pretty decent, albeit mostly a short yardage thrower with a completion percentage over 71%.

They really aren't that far off from being a decent team, and adding CMC back should get them closer, but there's a reason why they're 3-5, have a -14 point differential, and have dropped their last 3, and it isn't all on CMC.

This game also marks the return of AKB. This will be my first game back in the stands since the AFC Championship Game. Going to be a weird feeling, but I'm ready for it.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
10-26-2020, 03:27 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (17)

The opening line on this game was 21.5... Three fucking touchdown favorites.

You could play Sarah McClachlan music over video of the Jet sidelines. Adopt a Jet today! The Chiefs did their part by snagging Le'Veon Bell. Shame they couldn't also get Adams earlier.

I'm going to keep my powder dry. There's no reason for me to verbally lambast the 0-7 Jets' chances against the champs. We all know how this is gonna go.

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