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Posted by: asskickingboots
11-03-2020, 09:47 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (11)

Fantasy football players are likely well aware of Christian McCaffrey's absence much of this season due to injury. This game potentially marks his return to football.

The Panthers offense has been substandard without him, but they have not been entirely incompetent. They still are surprisingly efficient in a number of areas. RB Mike Davis still is averaging 4.2 ypc, which is okay. Teddy Bridgewater has been efficient and overall pretty decent, albeit mostly a short yardage thrower with a completion percentage over 71%.

They really aren't that far off from being a decent team, and adding CMC back should get them closer, but there's a reason why they're 3-5, have a -14 point differential, and have dropped their last 3, and it isn't all on CMC.

This game also marks the return of AKB. This will be my first game back in the stands since the AFC Championship Game. Going to be a weird feeling, but I'm ready for it.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
10-26-2020, 03:27 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (17)

The opening line on this game was 21.5... Three fucking touchdown favorites.

You could play Sarah McClachlan music over video of the Jet sidelines. Adopt a Jet today! The Chiefs did their part by snagging Le'Veon Bell. Shame they couldn't also get Adams earlier.

I'm going to keep my powder dry. There's no reason for me to verbally lambast the 0-7 Jets' chances against the champs. We all know how this is gonna go.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
10-20-2020, 05:27 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (13)

I went into this season believing the Broncos were our biggest threat because I believed Drew Lock was the next best QB in the divison, but then a number of players got hurt including Von Miller. They started the year 0-3 and I had them dead and buried like most everyone else.

After just 2 wins and their glory boy Drew Lock returning, suddenly they think they're on top of the world. That's great. I always think it's more fun to beat division rivals when they think they have hope.

Lock did not have some great game against the Pats. In fact, he sucked. He was 10/24, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs, yet I'm seeing praise heaped upon him for a very Tim Tebow like stat line minus all of the rushing yards. I'm guessing some of these people didn't really watch the game.

The Chiefs defense stepped up again. This time they took an offense that was averaging over 400 yards a game and damn near halved them to 206 yards. They have not been consistent this year, but they've showcased the ability to outright take a game over.

Let's face it, if the Chiefs have truly figured out the running game, everyone else is screwed. CEH had a great game and averaged 6.2 ypc, but even the other backs combined for 5.25 ypc. Adding someone with the talent of Bell could absolutely wreck our opposition.

I'm curious what the shuffling around on the offensive line has contributed to the sudden outburst on the ground. It may be as simple as the Bills overplayed the "don't give up anything deep" meme of a strategy and therefore watched they're bigs get jostled. I don't think it's that simple though, but we'll see going forward if run blocking is our new found strength.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
10-14-2020, 01:53 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (14)

The Chiefs are 4-1 and I'm already hearing how they've been "figured out". We're doomed. We'll never win another game. All you have to do is run the same defense repeatedly and Mahomes will never figure it out, yet alone have success against it again after a few drives but with time working against him.

Meanwhile the Bills also lost finally to the Titans on a *checks paperwork* Tuesday? Hard to imagine anybody is worth a damn out of these two incredibly flawed teams.

I don't know how to break it to everyone that's out there overreacting, this is another potential preview for the AFC Championship game. Mahomes will not only bounce back, he will break some hearts.

Gotta get back to work, I'll dive into some stats for this game later.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
10-08-2020, 09:03 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
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The Raiders started off thinking they were hot shit because they went 2-0 to start the year. Since then they've lost to the Patriots (albeit with Cam) and the Bills. Note the Bills are undefeated, but they've only faced the Jets, Dolphins, Rams, and Raiders, hardly a murderer's row.

But let's be honest, facing the Panthers, Saints, Patriots, and Bills s a fairly tough schedule other than the Panthers for the Raiders and I would not have expected them to be 2-2 at this point. However, they just have not looked good the last couple weeks.

Considering we already beat the Chargers once and the Broncos have physically fallen apart, the Raiders may be our biggest yet laughably small hurdle to clear for continued AFC West supremacy.

Derek Carr sucks. I saw someone point out on Twitter that the Patriots were double teaming Carr's checkdowns... HIS CHECKDOWNS! That is as hilarious as it is insane and IT WORKED!

I wish I had more time to elaborate, but I'll let you guys fill in details for now. Go CHIEFS!!!

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Posted by: asskickingboots
09-29-2020, 12:58 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (28)

I've had to hear how the Ravens were going to destroy the Chiefs since within days of the last time the Chiefs convincingly beat them, both from opposing fans and so-called experts. We weren't going beat them in the playoffs. Then our Super Bowl wasn't legit because we didn't have to beat them and the Patriots on our way. Then they were going to destroy us again on MNF in week 3 almost all offseason.

Now our enemies have to be feeling pretty helpless. If the chiseled Adonises (Adonisii?) that everyone put on a pedestal as the team to beat were dispatched so quickly I wouldn't have been surprised if Andy Reid ran out onto the field arms wide open yelling "ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED!!!", who could beat us?

Enter the Patriots.

The Patriots are still good. Their offense may be different with Cam, but it may even be a marked improvement. Their defense is excellent. Their coaching top notch. Amazing special teams. They still might be the team to beat in the AFC East even despite the threat of the up and coming Bills.

The only loss for the Patriots were to Seahawks, led by current MVP front runner and fantasy stud Russell Wilson, and the Pats were one successful QB run away from beating them. The Seahawks might be the best team in the NFC and the Patriots all but had them.

The Chiefs cannot sleep on this game. Harbaugh is a good coach. He is not Darth Hoodie though.The Patriots compare rather favorably to the Chiefs. Very similar stats in terms of yards and yards allowed. I'll try to get some statistical angle on this later, I'm typing from my phone right now, but as crazy as this sounds I'm a little worried the Patriots game could be a trap.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
09-22-2020, 05:25 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (28)

Not going to be many games this year where someone else is the favorites over the Chiefs. This game opened up at -3 Baltimore and actually has stayed put or slightly widened (-3.5) since. This is basically a pick 'em game, but it's a rare moment where other team's fans are picking against us in part because if the Chiefs win this, who the hell is going to beat them?

Gotta leave some room for hope, the rest of the NFL.

However, the Chiefs have owned recent history against Baltimore, including the last 3 meetings, 2 of which were against Lamar Jackson. These were close victories, but maybe it's a mental hurdle for Lamar and Company, like showing up in the playoffs.

It's an inconvenient fact that the Chiefs may be without both of their top corners, Ward is nursing a broken hand but may play in a cast while Breeland is still serving a suspension. However, if the Chiefs can apply pressure the way they have the first two weeks, the defense may be able to flip the script on the Ravens vaunted offense. The Chiefs have the 2nd best pressure rating (37.2%) so far while using far less blitzes than a team like the Ravens. Flushing a running QB out while rushing just 4 is a great way to prevent chunk plays and force mistakes.

Speaking of which, the Ravens have blitzed nearly half of the time, 47.1%, which is a lot. Mahomes actually has a higher career passer rating vs. 5+ rushers compared to 4 or less (according to Next Gen Stats heading into the SB last year). Take someone out of coverage, he not only gets rid of it quick, he'll eventually make you pay.

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Posted by: NOLA
09-18-2020, 06:16 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (5)

Apparently it's our dude's birthday, so happy bday man!  I'm sure you'll see this at some point.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
09-14-2020, 05:56 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (17)

We're about to get our first taste of what the division has done in response to the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl.

Chargers getting the 'Rod?
In the case of the Chargers their solution to having a SB champ in the division was to end their long term relationship with the in more ways than one potent Philip Rivers and instead choose Tyrod Taylor as Mr. Right Now and Justin Herbert as Mr. Right, like, eventually. I think both are going to be abysmal failures, but for right now the Chiefs gotta just be concerned with Tyrod.

I often hear Tyrod Taylor is a poor man's Alex Smith. At one point four years ago maybe, but if we're being honest there is no such thing.

If you aren't managing a game well you aren't Alex Smith at all, you're just failing slower than others. Tyrod's 64.5 quarterback rating the last year he was given a shot as a starter tells you he is not. Tyrod has only started 4 games since he went to Cleveland in 2018 including yesterday, Alex started in 10 and his leg looked like it belonged on a Dark Souls boss or he'd still be starting. There is no comparison.

And forgive me if I'm not impressed with a below average performance against a bad Bengals team.

A) Against the Bengals. B) On 39 carries, so it's just under 4 ypc which is actually lower than their average ypc last season and not good.

Gave up 4.3 ypc as a team, which is more than the 3.9 ypc the Bengals averaged last year.

Oh... At least Tyrod was efficient?!
0 INTs, but 0 TDs and barely completed over half his passes.


I was going to keep going, but even statistically there ain't many real mirages to give the Chargers imaginary fans hope other than a W in the win column against what they know is not the Chiefs. They were an average team that took a step back, we know how this is going to go.

What will we actually see?
Mahomes gets another joyous chance to destroy a Gus Bradley style Cover 3 defense. This is not an exotic defense, in fact it's reached a real saturation point in the NFL and it's losing its effectiveness. Many of Mahomes' best games have came against this scheme, including specifically against the Chargers.

Other than that, we'll get to hear battlecries of "wait until Derwin James is healthy". If you can't hang with us until everything is perfect for you then you can't hang with us.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
09-11-2020, 12:15 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (71)

The other AFC West division games this opening weekend are:
Raiders @ Panthers Noon
Chargers @ Bengals 3:05
Titans @ Broncos MNF (back half of double-header)

So, if you want to watch all these games you can depending upon what your local affiliates carry.

Raiders @ Panthers (LV favored by 3)
I think the Panthers are bad outside of Run CMC, I know the hawtest hawt taek ever, but adding Bridgewater at QB might be enough of an improvement to add a couple wins on the season if he can just bring some stability. This should be a winnable game for them.

The Raiders I don't feel like they made the major improvements they needed to compete with us by a long shot, but they may be a more convincing 7-9 than they were last year (-106 point differential, simply put they got lucky enough to get worse draft picks).

The Raiders invested a lot in veteran defensive players, particularly in their front 7 in LB Cory Littleton (100+ tackle LB), DE Carl Nassib (Meh DE), and others, I just don't know what to think of them as a cohesive unit. It wouldn't take much to improve the defense though, that's what has buried them in the cellar the last few years.

Chargers @ Bengals (LA favored by 3)
The Chargers should be a better team than the Bengals, but this is the first time we've see anything other than Rivers leading them in a long time. Tyrod is an incredibly different QB than Rivers. More careful. More athletic. But he played piss poor the last we saw him for the Browns. Should be interesting. The defense losing Derwin James is huge.

They were an average team that had some bad breaks last year that led to a worse than deserved 5-11 record (-8 point differential), but it's hard to jump on the bandwagon right now (not that I would).

The Bengals were 2-14 en route to winning Joe Burrow. While I wouldn't expect too much from a rookie QB starting immediately, Burrow's weapons (Mixon, AJ Green, Boyd, etc.) are nothing to sneeze at. However, the fact that this is only a 3 point game really reflects the lack of faith in the Chargers on behalf of the betting public more than anything to do with the Bengals.

Titans @ Broncos (TEN favored by 2.5)
Broncos have the toughest matchup by far. They were 7-9 with a -34 point differential, so they were the only case where they actually finished where they belonged.

But they're facing a legitimate Titans team that had some uncanny bad luck to end up at their evergreen Jeff Fisher memorial 9-7 status (+71 point differential) and made some noise in the playoffs. The Titans lost some pieces (Logan Ryan, Jack Conklin) but added some guys too (Clowney, Vic Beasley). Hard to say exactly where they stand, but it'd be easy to guess average or better.

The Broncos at least gave the appearance of improvement in a number of areas, but many of these improvements are rookies. Not every rookie hits and not every hit shows up right away, and of those that hit they're likely to hit the famed "rookie wall" at the end of the year, especially with the lack of a full offseason of preparation. Losing Von Miller cannot be understated. Considering his age, he may never be the same player again.

I think the Broncos have the best shot of challenging us this year, but they are going to feature some hardcore growing pains, especially early.

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