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Posted by: asskickingboots
01-13-2020, 10:26 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (46)

Chiefs vs. Titans - AFC Championship Game

Last week I started typing immediately out of convenience, knowing all of the who / what / where details during the weekend. This week I got home from the game in the evening and had to leave for work by 4 AM (don’t worry, I’m not the one driving, finishing this on the road hence no memes), so I started typing this immediately out of necessity or I otherwise wouldn’t be able to until Wednesday. You are welcome for my sacrifice.

These Chiefs
Our mindset as KC fans has long been one of waiting for the other shoe to drop. We’re used to playoff tragedy. We’re used to heartbreak. We’re used to everything going wrong exactly when we can least afford it.

We’re used to insurmountable leads being… surmounted, and surmounted hard at that. We’re used to elite units being dragged to hell by their inept counterparts. We’re used to being exposed for our shortcomings before the entire nation.

I watched Arrowhead go from almost painfully amped to frustrated silence. No, the crowd hadn’t given up on the team, but when they saw the Chiefs fall behind 24-0 largely behind a rapid succession of dropped passes and fluke blunders it felt all too familiar. I felt like this could be the ultimate “because, chiefs” moment. So many circumstances aligning in the team’s favor just to see the playoffs end as soon as they began, or so it seemed.

We aren’t those Chiefs anymore.

We aren’t the team that failed to win a playoff game for 20 straight years anymore. That team is dead and buried.

We’re the team that’s hosting the AFC Championship game for the 2nd year in a row. We’re 2-1 so far the past 2 years in the playoffs.

We are not lovable losers. We are not chokers. We are not doomed to fail

If you don’t believe that, understand this win wasn’t possible for most teams. To overcome a 24-point deficit to a division winning playoff team takes a complete team effort. To do so with time to coast to a 20-point victory takes the stuff of legend. It took offensive, defensive and special teams dominance for 3 quarters. This will be a fun little detour in the team’s DVD after the season. We have to get used to all this winning finally.

Like Sylvester Stallone in Over the Top, the greatest arm wrestling child custody movie of all-time, it was like a switch. The moment Mecole Hardman had a big return the crowd was back into it. It wasn't just a snowball effect, it was an avalanche. 

We are a mythic chimera and no one wants any of this. There isn’t a derpy lion’s head or malnourished snake tail like in year’s past. There isn’t a weakness to be had. We are glorious!

It may take a beast of legend to slay a titan.

O’ Henry
“Oh man, nothing that big should move that fast.” That’s what John Mayberry, then the Royals hitting coach, said of Bo Jackson. I can’t think of a more accurate description of Henry’s running style recently.

Now the two aren’t really physically  comparable. Bo had blazing, borderline Tyreek Hill speed and did so at an impressive 6’1”, 220 lbs, but that’s far different than Henry who ran a far slower 4.5 forty, yet dwarfs Bo at 6’5”, 250. Henry’s functional downhill speed is dependent on already having a full head of steam to try to escape defenders, not instant-on, zero to sixty speed like Bo.

Physically the better comparison is Christian Okoye who was a little more stout (6’1”, 250) and slightly faster timed speed, but there’s still a major difference in their game. Okoye was still learning the game at the pro level. Henry has been incredible since he was in high school. You ever wonder what a more polished Okoye would look like before injuries ate at him? It’d look a lot like Henry.

How well the Chiefs handle the challenge of the Titans as a whole clearly hinges on how well they handle Henry and what else they have to sacrifice to stop him if they do.

The Hottest Team in the NFL
If there’s one consistent thing I’ve heard people call the Titans the past day or so, it’s exactly that. The hottest team in the NFL. It seems neat and easy to agree to, but it’s downright ignorant of reality.

Obviously, the same talking heads were saying the same thing about Baltimore, and you see what that got them; an early vacation. There’s also another team out there that’s been doing pretty good as of late that may have a word about that.

But it’s especially easy to forget this; the Titans lost 2 of the last 3 regular season games and nearly pissed away their playoff hopes to the undeserving Steelers and vile Raiders before facing a Houston team resting their starters in week 17, a Houston team that just beat the Titans a couple weeks earlier. If Houston were trying, they might have dealt the knockout blow to their division foe.

It is true that this team has played vastly better since they replaced Marcus Mariota with Ryan Tannehil at QB, but it wasn’t some tour de force or fait accompli. They backed their way into the playoffs. The Titans are lucky they ever got a shot, even if they’ve impressed in the playoffs.

The Chiefs are lucky to host the AFC Championship game, but few ever doubted their place in the playoffs. The Chiefs have a stranglehold on the AFC West that makes Ted Nugent jealous. They’ve won their last 7 games, and most of the wins have been by double digits.

Even the Niners lost to the Falcons in the past month. If anyone has been bulletproof lately, it’s the Chiefs.

Stats Don’t Matter Now
If I were to take a real deep statistical dive in this game it would be a boring exercise. The Chiefs are clearly better. The Chiefs have the better overall offense and defense regardless of what major metric you’re using. If you are comparing the teams since their last meeting it’s even more clear. The Chiefs dominate in most efficiency metrics too.

I guess one angle worth discussing is the Titans struggles to protect the passer. They have the 2nd fewest pass attempts (28 per game) yet gave up the 3rd most sacks (3.5 per game). The Chiefs have been lighting up opposing QBs lately, forcing both sacks and INTs at a higher rate later in the season. When the Titans do pass it tends to be deep, so generating pressure early is key.

On the negative side you could say the Titans have a better rushing offense to no one’s surprise, but I’d view it mostly as an utter dependence on the run game. This does line up with a perceived weakness against the run for KC, but I’ve pointed out before there’s been a significant improvement on that front as of late.

Prime example, the Chiefs gave up 98 less rushing yards against the Texans in the divisional round (94) than they did in week 6 (192) despite the first being a game the mostly led and the second being a game they trailed significantly early. I’d argue the Texans trying to force the run after they had the lead was part of what allowed the Chiefs to end their drives.

It’s a completely different team defensively and I think people are back on board with the offense. All things considered, the Chiefs plainly have the better team and they’re feeling just as good about themselves as the Titans.

However, we’re to the point that what you did yesterday has little to do with what you do today. It’s the playoffs, it’s single elimination, and it’s time to put up or shut up.

It’s time to see which team can add up to more, and in this format a team can easily add up to more than the sum of their parts. All it takes is a good gameplan, good execution, and a little luck.

It's time to bring the Lamar Hunt trophy home!

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Posted by: asskickingboots
01-05-2020, 01:35 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (37)

Damn right I started writing this as soon as I knew who we were facing. I haven't been as proud of one of these since, well, the Texans a few years back when all I had to do was tell you their QB was Brian Hoyer eight different ways.


The strings of fate
The past week was one big party to KC sports fans. In a span of 90 seconds home viewers got to listen to former Chiefs radio announcer and national treasure Kevin Harlan call two games at once, FEC rules be damned! Even on TV you FELT the moment the crowd knew the Chiefs were getting that much needed bye.

It was like winning two games at once. The last time I felt that much elation at a game was ruined 4 seconds later when I realized Dee Ford lined up offsides and left me with two sticky messes in my pants.

So a season that for about a month’s time felt like a wasted opportunity turns out was simultaneously failing just enough that the Chiefs could snag a Hall of Fame defensive end on waivers, the exact position they needed most, and just enough success to get that coveted number two seed and all it took was a victory so Fitztragically impossible Vegas had Miami as a 17 point dog. But what does Vegas know, they actually want the Raiders. Of course they don’t believe in Fitzmagic.

[Image: raw]

I haven’t felt the strings of fate pulled this hard since the 2015 Royals.

The tangentially related Tom Brady sized elephant in the room
The divisional round is an archaic title for next weekend. Why? Because not every division winner makes the divisional round anymore as was proven yesterday. The end of an era, one even more significant than the Matt Moore era in KC, maybe. Is this the last ride for Brady and Belichick together?

Mike Vrabel must have sacrificed his mustache in some kind of ancient demonic ritual he learned from Belichick to gain the gnostic elusive knowledge of how to kill their demogorgan foe and that was a waste of good womb broom as it was what every drunk sports bar patron outside of Boston was hoping they would do; pound Derrick Henry in hard without asking for any kind of consent. Brady’s last pass might be a touchdown to a FORMER patriot. "We're still here" my ass.

[Image: tomtom.jpg?w=1000&h=600&crop=1]

(Pictured: A man who is not "still there")

Once Tom Brady is done crying himself to sleep on a bed made entirely of loose fiddies and using his supermodel wife's funbags as a pillow he'll have to come to the harsh reality that he may be done. Not with life mind you. His lifestyle is the type of shit a CGI blue Will Smith would tell you is gonna take up two of your wishes minimum. Even if he's not done with football, the patriots may be done with him as he's not under contract right now.

(Note: I had a hard time not posting a picture of Gisele's funbags. Worth a look.)

What happens next will be amazing.

Do the Pats sell out their future acquiring the likes of AJ Green and Amari Cooper to give Brady a proper send off? Does Darth Hoodie demonstrate his brutality by giving Tom a viking funeral and snatching some new youngling apprentice to mold to his sinister ways? Is there some cagey veteran salivating over the opportunity to helm the Death Star? Is the 9,001st trade by the Pats since Belichick the first FOR a QB? Will we see TB12 selling vitamins in a Bengals uni or will he just fuck off? Is 30 for 30 Famous Jameis the next Pats QB? Can Robert Kraft get even more fingers in his butthole at a strip mall massage parlor? Is there a way I can shoehorn in an Antonio Brown reference for no sane reason? I just did.

For the first time in over a decade I'm genuinely interested in hearing about what the Patriots are going to do this offseason since it could very well determine a big chunk of the future in the AFC.

But for right now, as Booger McFarland might say in between drawing phalluses on the telestrator, losing yesterday is really going to hurt the Pats chances at advancing in the playoffs. The beast is slain… for now.

Mahomes v. Watson: Round 2
Until injuries take their toll and gaia swallows up one of these players whole this will remain one of the most anticipated and over-analyzed AFC QB matchups for years to come that will force Bears fans to viscerally change the channel when mentioned, but saying so is giving a pass to the 9 other teams that passed on Mahomes. This is the debate to have about the 2017 draft class. Patrick Lavon Mahomes II v. Derrick DeShaun Watson.

As much as I clearly prefer Mahomes and will statistically back that up in a moment, it’s important to state that the 3rd year player and 2 time Pro Bowler Watson ain’t too shabby himself and he did win a bizarre matchup with the Chiefs earlier in the year. But let us talk about what happened yesterday.

In the face of almost as much pressure as Derrick Thomas could generate by himself in a single game, Watson’s line surrendered a whopping 21.9% sack rate on their way to 7 sacks, yet he still had an efficient game. Somehow Watson was 20 for 25, 247 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, a 121.2 rating, and tack on another 14 rushes for 55 yards as his body fled in full self-preservation mode.

But when it comes time to compare the QBs themselves, don’t let Texans fans tell you 2019 Watson is more efficient than 2019 Mahomes. That’s far more QB meme than reality that’s really only supported by one major stat, completion percentage (Watson 67.3% / Mahomes 65.9%).

The two have thrown nearly the same TD rate (Watson 5.3% / Mahomes 5.4%), but Mahomes threw picks at a far lower rate (Watson 2.4% / Mahomes 1%). Mahomes averages a half yard more per attempt (Watson 7.8 / Mahomes 8.3). Watson’s game is dependent on short passes whereas Mahomes only threw a lot of short passes on the lack of a consistent running game.

Even the most basic bitch efficiency stat of all, QB Rating, shows Mahomes is better (Watson 98.0 / Mahomes 105.3) and the gap on QBR was even wider somehow (Watson 69.5 / Mahomes 78). Need I remind you this year was considered an injury riddled let down for Mahomes.

[Image: th?id=OIP.4NSvv_0mXka51guQjR-fngHaHr&pid=Api&rs=1]

Mahomes is a better QB. That's science. The best someone can twist the stats to do is make Watson look like he’s in the same zip code.

Watt-ever, that defense still sucks
Watson faced a great defense and mostly persevered, but his real saving grace was that he was facing an incompetent boob at QB.

If you just look at the stat line it’d be easy to assume Josh Allen had a good game, a combined 372 yards passing/rushing/receiving. That does not tell the story of Allen trying his damndest to give the game away before the Texans whimpered into an unimpressive second chance in overtime alone win.

Allen was taking dogshit sacks, dropping the ball in what looked like a glitch in the Matrix it was so unforced, a lateral so derpy he could get disability by showing a government worker video of it, being aided by game management that went for a 4th & 27 while in long FG range with time and timeouts left, and tossing up winged prayers far before necessary that could have ended the game in a moment’s notice. The Texans still likely would have lost if the refs didn't call a ticky tack blindside block in OT when the Bills were already in FG range.

[Image: images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcQClRHc4CyxNj8nLtbzP...Q3sIuHvZad]

But the simple fact remains that the Bills, a team that had the 9th worst yardage offense in the regular season, put up 425 yards on the Texans D. That’s 95 more yards than their season average and they faced an inept schedule of failures. Hell, that’s 18 yards more than the Ravens average. 

The season stats for the Texans aren’t any more comforting, for their fans anyway. I can’t believe I failed to notice this while making my playoff predictions, which may be why the Bills-Texans game was closer than I expected, but the Texans have a minus 7 point differential on the season. Yes, circumstantially they were close to being 12-4, but they won some bullshit close games to get to 10-6. I was generally aware of that, but I was so focused on the weak schedule for the Bills I didn’t realize it was that bad for the Texans.

The Texans defense literally gave up 26 more points on the season than the Jets. I’m sure Houston sports stations will be lined up with ignorant doofs proselytizing Monday about JJ Watt existing and expecting 800 yards of offense against that Chiefs defense… a defense that gave up 77 less points than they did and finished as the 5th best scoring defense even after a shaky start.

The Texans gave up 6.1 yards per play this season! That’s tied for worst in the whole damn league. That defense is going to have to face the Chiefs that forced 6.2 yards per play?! But hey, at least their middle of the road offense gets to face our top 10 defense, so they’ve got that going for them.

Bill O'Brien sucks. Romeo Crennel sucks. I don't know who Tim Kelly is, some young first year offensive coordinator apparently, but I'm sure he sucks too. This game is over before it even starts.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-30-2019, 10:22 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (17)

Time to see some coaches get shitcanned.

First, the Browns dumped Kitchens after their season went down the sink (sink, Kitchens, get it?)

Second, the Giants are getting rid of Kyle Shurmur's dad

Third, Redskins are ditching GM Bruce Allen

Fourth, the Panthers have requested to interview Chiefs Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy

UPDATE: EB also received an interview request from the Giants.

At least a couple other dominoes are likely to fall. Some interesting potential. I think whether it's the Panthers or elsewhere we can pretty well kiss EB goodbye. I think he has more potential as a fgiurehead coach than as a coordinator, tbh.

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Posted by: Chi-town_Chief
12-29-2019, 04:06 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (15)

Discuss

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Posted by: HG
12-27-2019, 04:25 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- No Replies

Waited 50 years for this one.  Loved it.  Perfect!  Dont give a shit if you hated it.  I loved it.  And at this moment and time my opinion is all that matters.

(I learned how to do this from Adam Shiff)

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-23-2019, 10:14 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (12)

One of the most amazing and anticipated statistics for obsessive compulsive Chiefs fans is coming up. This Sunday marks the opportunity for the Chiefs to win another division game to complete a shiny 90% win-rate in the division since 2015. They're already 26-3 against the AFC West in that time.

It's not that the AFC West has been bad during that time either, all 3 other teams have had a 12-4 season in that time span. We're just plain better.

There are plenty of legitimate criticisms to make of Andy Reid, but not being ready for division opponents isn't one of them.

Is this the most amazing defense ever?
Okay, probably not, but let's play homer's advocate for a moment.

In the last 5 games the Chiefs defense has only allowed 48 points, which is 9.6 points per game. In comparison 11 times in the NFL in the same time period a team has allowed 40+ points in a single game. The defense allowed just 4 total TDs in the last 5 games, all the other points were FGs.

All 5 QBs had a QB rating of 83 or worse (91 being league average) and combined for 3 TDs to 8 INTs. Pressure has greatly increased on QBs.

I wish I could give you some more advanced statistics to show that, but I noticed several errors right now on Pro Football Reference they haven't cleaned up (like showing Drew Lock threw 2 TDs against us), so I will admit that it hasn't really manifested in sacks en masse (12 in 5 games), but I know for a fact the pressure numbers are better.

Even the run D is greatly improved. During this stretch the Chiefs have allowed 37 less rushing yards than their season average and would rank as a top 5 run D (92.4 yards per game) if they kept this up.

This isn't the most amazing defense ever and these haven't been the most explosive offenses, but this is one of the most impressive turnarounds I have seen.

This isn't your typical Chargers team
Normally the Chargers do amazing down the stretch after pissing away any realistic shot they have to make the playoffs and complete their season with a soul crushing loss to us to seal it.

Last year was an outlier in that they didn't do as bad early, managed to beat us for the first time since the current gaming console generation in one of the least impressive wins I've seen in a while, and then pissed away their opportunity elsewhere. Don't let Chargers fans call the Chiefs chokers, they don't wait to get on the grand stage to choke.

This year also may have been an outlier, but more likely it's the start of a trend. The Chargers only briefly had a glimmer of hope before they got ran into the ground. Since we last beat them they've only had 1 win.

Rivers has fallen off a cliff. Even with a pretty good running game to support him and a lot of defensive talent, he cannot win games right now. Without picking up a new QB I don't know how the media will justify picking them over us again next year.

They're a better team than their 5-10 record, even with some lop-sided losses they are still +2 on net points on the season, which should figure closer to a .500 record. So it's bad luck, it's injuries, it's ineptitude against quality competition, and it's taking a turn for the worse lately, but they've got more to work with than the typical 5-10 team.

Playoffs?! Playoffs?!
Rather than get all worked up about different scenarios, let me say this.

Other than likely having to play wildcard weekend, this is an extremely balanced team capable of winning any style of game and hence this is the best shot we've had at a SB. They don't have to play perfect or get a specific match up. They can win.

Bring it on.

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Posted by: ChiefsChick23
12-23-2019, 10:00 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (5)

Chiefs scoring offense: 4th
Chiefs scoring defense: 8th

Years and years of complaining that one side of the ball is great and the other just sucks are finally OVER.

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Posted by: NOLA
12-19-2019, 05:33 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (7)

I saw the end of the Star War last night.  I am prepared to discuss when y'all are.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-17-2019, 10:09 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (7)

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2019/12/1...0-pro-bowl

Frank Clark
Tyreek Hill
Chris Jones
Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes
Mecole Hardman (as a returner)

I think Frank Clark has played like a pro bowler lately, but including earlier in the year when he wasn't I find it hard to believe he made it. Must be a down year for defensive ends or too many edge rushers are listed as LBs.

Butker, Schwartz, and Honey Badger are my snubs, but if I'm being honest at some point you want other teams to get some players in there. Chiefs already have the second most players in the AFC behind Baltimore who has 12!

I'm not complaining though. I don't want any of our guys playing in the damned Pro Bowl game anyway.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-17-2019, 08:03 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (12)

Sorry this is a bit late, but I've got this amateur side gig doing light specialty construction as a glazier that I've been letting get in the way. A man can dream of the big time.

Also, my computer restarted overnight when I had this half wrote, so here's my half-assed, basically self made second hand version of this.

Their Offense is Offensive
The Bears offense stinks. For the next 20 years every time we face the Bears we'll be obligated to mentioned that they could have had Mahomes. Just how bad are they? By yards per game they're basically the Broncos, 1 yard less per game.

There is a big debate among their fans about who is to blame; Trubisky, Nagy, or their o-line. Many are already fantasizing about their next head coach, so maybe we can get Nagy back New England style just as someone likely poaches Bieniemy this offseason.

They've got some pieces, but they still seem worse than the sum of their parts.

Their Defense is... Defensive?
On the flip side, that defense is still very good.

I think there's a general perception that they're not as good as last year. Truth is they are only slightly worse in points, actually better than the Ravens both for points allowed per game and yards per play, they just aren't as reliant on big plays (sacks, INTs, fumbles) and therefore not an exciting fantasy defense.

How Good are Da Bears then?
Criminally average. Their record is 7-7. Jeff Fisher gets mildly aroused watching them play, at half-mast you might say. It's embarrassing how average they are. That great defense is being wasted by the offense. They are so average as a team they're +3 on net points. Not +3 per game, which would be pretty close, but +3 on the season.

Now, an average NFL team that's motivated, overlooked, talented, that matches up well, and has a good gameplan can beat a far superior team. But that's only if the superior team lets them.

This is the Chiefs game to lose, but they damn well better not. I don't think they will, they look like they've been having a ton of fun as a team and they're on a roll. With a little help the Chiefs are still easily in the running for a bye.

Go Bills!

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