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Posted by: asskickingboots
46 minutes ago
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- No Replies

The NFL Draft is going to start Thursday April 29th. We're about 10 days away from knowing what rookies we have to look forward to in 2021 and beyond.

I've been spending a decent amount of my free time doing mock drafts on PFN's simulator. As I said elsewhere I like the trade system in their simulator, though I didn't use it in these drafts.

Anyway, here's 2 of my recent mock drafts and I'll break them down. I generally run 4 round mocks because  the Chiefs have 2 fourth rounders, it legit takes less than 5 minutes most of the time and I never trade up just because it's a real hassle to determine a fair value. I am less trade happy than I was when I first found this website.

HEAVY D DRAFT
In this draft I saw a lot of defensive value early, so I took it. Paye I've seen go to the Giants at 11 in a few national mocks and he fits the Spags DE mold. Bolton is a little less value and may not help the Chiefs as much as a better coverage LB might, but he's a tackling machine. Besides, OT value wasn't there at that point. You can always use more DBs which the Chiefs have done well at finding and developing talent there. Campbell is a tall (6'2"), lean, fast corner with great potential. Gillespie plays similar to Dirty Dan (hard hitter, better vs. run than pass) and would be an excellent fit in a similar role in the future. I could see us draft a large S and convert them to coverage LB too, though he plays bigger than he actually is (6'0", 210 lbs). I still ended up with solid OT prospects late in the 4th, though where these players rank varies wildly on different draft ranking services, but more on that later.


[Image: Heavy-D.jpg]


HEAVY O DRAFT
In this draft I saw more offensive value early. Fans often think of this year when it comes to the draft, but GMs tend to think beyond, which is exactly why I see OC as a potential big need this draft despite signing the serviceable Austin Blythe to a 1 year contract. Besides, Andy Reid likes to put the best 5 starters out there on offense instead of pigeon holing players as specific spots, so you could see Creed and Blythe on the field at the same time. I had really good options at OT in the 2nd as both Mayfield and Liam Eichenberg were still available. The Chiefs might trade back into the late 2nd if this were the case in real life and snag both. Brevin Jordan is kind of a Mahomes' wishlist pick, getting a guy that allows the team to run more 2 TE sets to help the run game without sacrificing much in the pass game as well as finding a legit replacement should Kelce miss time. Again I wanted to snag a mid round DB and at EDGE Ogundeji is a size / build fit with potential for a Spags D.

[Image: Heavy-Mahomes.jpg]

SUMMARY
I'd explain more about the players in these drafts, but the thing is I don't feel these are particularly realistic drafts. Most of these services at least partially base their rankings on conversations with actual scouts and they have more disagreement than ever.

The main problem I'm seeing is the OT market. OT is deep and quality this year, which is a great thing for the Chiefs who may snag a couple even, but apparently NFL scouts are not in agreement over what order to rank them.

I've seen a player (OT Sam Cosmi, Texas) be ranked 4th best OL one place and then as low as 17th on another. That's an extreme example, but there's a lot of variance in the rankings everywhere after the first couple guys. Some of the mid to late 2nd round OTs in these simulated mocks I've done (Liam Eichenberg, Dillon Radunz, Jalen Mayfield) I've seen go to us in the 1st round in national mocks or last into the 3rd in others. This throws off how the entire board will drop and might even be why the Chiefs find more value at a different position like LB or WR early.

Be prepared for a lot of "the Chiefs overdrafted player X" articles or that they went for a luxury pick over need, but I'm going to trust that the team is just valuing players differently than other teams and media and you can't base your draft too much on what other people think instead of what you think.

I feel strongly that this draft is either going to be a dream or nightmare for Brett Veach based on how the teams in front of us draft. It's also important to consider the Cheifs could still theoretically get a veteran tackle in FA (Okung, Fisher, Schwartz) or trade (Orlando Brown). I think we're more likely to trade up than down since we need quality more than quantity at this point besides just the fact that Veach tends to be aggressive anyway.

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Posted by: NOLA
02-24-2021, 01:40 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (76)

I suspect this will be a lonely place, but if you feel like talking salary cap/free agency/the draft with me, post stuff here.

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Posted by: NOLA
02-09-2021, 10:09 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (1)

RIP Marty.  Thanks for making those 90s teams watchable.  Sorry about, well... you know.  We just don't say his name.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
01-25-2021, 02:11 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (124)

Once again wanted to get a thread up nearly immediately. Let's get the basics out of the way and get the talk rolling. I'm also too amped to sleep, so I just as well drop some knowledge on ya.

Be sure to use this thread as a place to drop cool hype / breakdown / preview videos, memes, and articles. I'm going to ingest a disgusting amount of media over the next couple weeks just like last year.

We've seen this game already
Chiefs dominated the Bucs early in Week 12, particularly Tyreek having a career game in the first damn quarter for 203 yards. Yes, the Chiefs only won 27-24, but the Chiefs entered the 4th quarter with a 27-10 lead.

The Bucs legit did try to make a game of it, but if you look at the win probability according to ESPN it was never below an 84.7% since a few minutes into the 3rd quarter.

The Chiefs just don't like to shoot all of their bullets to "win more". This is why the media loves teams like the Ravens, but often fail to see the overwhelming dominance of the Chiefs since it doesn't always show up in the final stats besides the only one that matters... WINS. I like point differential as a baseline, but I know better than to rely exclusively on it.

I'm reviewing the highlights from that Chiefs Bucs game right now and remembering just how brutal that game was early. The Chiefs were up 17-0 midway through the 2nd, driving in the red zone when the Bucs got a lucky strip sack recovery. Before that the Bucs had 4 drives for 39 yards vs. 5 drives for 313 yards for the Chiefs. They were exceedingly fortunate their deficit wasn't larger as the Chiefs were inches from having a TD instead of a FG and easily in FG range again. They could have easily been down 28-0.

After that the Chiefs milked the clock like *insert crude euphemism* and ended with damn near a whole NFL quarter more TOP (36:46 vs. 23:13, a +13:33 advantage). Tom Brady did his best Garbage Time Philip Rivers impersonation (or Pad Stafford if you prefer) for the second half, but it was never really in doubt and it was clear who the better team was.

We've seen what Bye Week Andy Reid does to opponents
BWAR is a very real phenomenon, statistical anomaly, and force to be dealt with. BWAR is 24-3 post bye including playoffs as a head coach. BWAR is 7-0 with Mahomes as his QB. BWAR's offense scores 35.7 PPG in those games with Mahomes, even after being dragged down by the Browns game where he was rolling until he was knocked out of the game.

BWAR is gonna rock some shit in SB LV.

Old narratives die hard
"The Bucs have a better point differential! The Chiefs suck because they win close games!"
154% of their "advantage" in point differential comes from a 47 to 7 late December blowout against the Lions. Pantsing the Lions long after they already fired their coach doesn't make you cool. That's something losers think. Go think like a loser elsewhere.

It's not like a +111 PD is a sign of weakness, and if you took away week 17 that would also make PD much closer. The Chiefs play situational football exceedingly well in most cases, so get out of here with your BCS and Ken Pom rankings.

"Tampa's D will crush Mahomes!"
Again, look at the previous game between the two, 543 yards even with the team turning it off early.

Stylistically the Bucs are highly dependent on blitzing (2nd most plays of 5+ rushers in the NFL). Blitzing means either man coverage, soft zones, or some kind of shifting cloud coverage. If you take guys out of coverage or otherwise put them in a positional disadvantage with our weapons it's over. Kelce, Hill, and co. will win their 1 on 1s almost instantly in many cases and Mahomes destroys you.

I'm sure an updated advanced stat will pop up somewhere in the lead up to SB LV, but every time I've ever seen Mahomes vs. pressure stats it shows he's actually better than if you don't blitz.

If you don't blitz him you lose. If you do blitz him he'll just be more brutal when he does connect.

"Bills suck at running and still got 129 rushing yards! Chiefs' Run D SUCKS!"
I've explained previously how on a ypc basis the Chiefs' Run D is actually average, but anybody pointing this out to you needs to know 2 things.

1) The Bucs can't run for dick. Bucs are tied for 6th worst ypc (4.1 ypc) which is worse than the Bills and they too basically abandoned their run game (4th fewest rush attempts). I don't think Spags is a masterclass DC, but he seems to know how to shut down one dimensional offenses.

2) 88 yards was Josh Allen on scrambles and designed QB runs. Including the playoffs this year, Tom Brady has 36 rushes for 6 yards. I do not have that backwards. His ypc is 0.17, though I should note that rounding up is very generous. I'm pretty sure the New Madrid fault would beat him in a footrace.

"Tom Brady shines the brightest under big lights."
4 of Mahomes' 5 best performances by QB rating this season were against playoff teams, including the Bucs. The only playoff team he had below a 100 QB rating was the Saints (92.0). You cannot seriously feed me the line like that is the edge for Brady considering all of PM15's accomplishments already. It's frightening the pace he is on.

Besides, is that really the narrative we're going with after TB12 tried desperately to give the NFCCG to Green Bay with 3 straight drives ending with a pick? Thought not.

"Tom Brady is the GOAT!"
Not for long.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
01-17-2021, 08:52 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (38)

Again, I wanted to get a place for discussion up immediately. I'll look at some more angles and stuff to look at as we get closer, but here's some basics.

Obviously storyline #1 with a bullet is whether Mahomes will be healthy for the AFCCG. If he is, fantastic and I think we win in a walk. If not, I think we still have more than a chance, even with Henne at the helm.

We've already seen the regular season matchup of these two teams. The Chiefs dominated in an unusually run heavy 26-17 game where the Chiefs more than doubled the Bills in yards (466 v. 206), nearly doubled on TOP (38 vs. 22), nearly tripled their run output (245 v. 84), and crushed them on yards per play (6.4 vs. 4.1). It wasn't nearly as competitive as the score would indicate.

I think the Bills matchup horribly with the Chiefs. The Chiefs are built to beat heavy blitz teams, defend the pass better than the run typically, and just plain have better coaching and playoff experience.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
01-11-2021, 08:13 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (53)

I wanted to get the thread up early in the week so the discussion could get flowing. I'll add some stats and analysis later, but for now I leave you with this.

[Image: 61SeFXPIyUL.jpg]

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Posted by: tyecopeland
01-10-2021, 09:25 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (15)

So I can't believe how badly the Seahawks fell off this year. They started the season with such a bad defense and let russell carry them and then when their defense got better their offense completely fell apart.

Of course their defense wasn't great yesterday either.

Can't decide whether I'd like to see the Browns pull off the upset against the steelers or if I'd rather see them get blown out.

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Posted by: NOLA
01-04-2021, 06:19 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (101)

So... it looks like John Elway just fired himself from the GM job in Denver.

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Posted by: Razorchief
01-01-2021, 12:24 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (8)

when will we know the playoff schedule? specifically the Chiefs games. gotta plan my days off from work so i can be there. we play on Jan. 16th or 17th or does it depend on seeding of our opponent. I know the AFC Championship is the 24th so no problem there

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Posted by: Coach
01-01-2021, 12:05 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (16)

Here's hoping 2021 will be much better for everyone involved.

Year 2020, good riddance.

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