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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-02-2019, 09:06 AM
Forum: 65 Toss Power Trap
- Replies (18)

Commence obligatory grumble about always having to travel to face the Patriots in the regular season due to scheduling quirks... grumble, grumble. Can't wait for our headsets to cut out on a key 3rd down.

[Image: patriots-memes.jpg]

Last week I pointed out how the Raiders weren't legitimate because of their massive negative point differential which just took a swan dive into the asphalt. The Patriots on the other hand have a massive positive point differential, +177, second best in the league behind Baltimore.

Make no mistake, despite losing to the Texans and looking inept on offense most of the game, that's still a real good team, but that point differential is smoke and mirrors getting to feast on some weak opponents.

The Patriots have an average offense (Ranked 14 in YPG), yet they are top 5 in points scored. There are 3 main reasons for this:

1. Their defense is damn good.
Fewest points allowed, 2nd fewest yards, 2nd fewest yards per play. I'm not going to go into this too much because I think elite offenses GENERALLY find ways to exploit elite defenses, or at least push them farther than most. Also, see point #3.

We know they'll try to take away our 2 best things, so that means covering deep and bracketing Kelce in the middle. Don't be surprised if the running game goes off on them because of it, ESPECIALLY if we see more Darwin Thompson (mancrush). They have the 6th best run defense by yards per game, but are about average on yards per carry (4.4 ypc).

So, this is their legitimate reason for being good 'n shit. The others are why it's not all it's cracked up to be.

2. Teams play dumb against them.
This is something that's happened in our favor a few times this year including the Ravens and I should coin some cute term for it, but teams often make dumb mistakes because they're so worried about points that haven't been scored yet they leave points off the board and swing momentum against them.

It'd be the 1st quarter, maybe even the first drive, and teams will opt not to take a chipshot FG or pull out some "that was never gonna work" trick play ending in disaster because they have to keep up with some not actualized but perceived score.

"You gotta go for it against Brady" is the logic, but what it tends to result in is less points early, a widening deficit by mid game, but rarely it allows a team not on their level to keep up late into the game. You likely win if you roll sevens all game, but the odds of you rolling sevens all game against a disciplined team are pretty fucking slim.

My philosophy is simple. Early in the game, you take the points. Yes, even against Brady or prime Manning. I'm not saying you punt from the 40 on 4th and inches, but I guarantee you if I had the time to go through decades of footage it would be easy to show all of the times teams took themselves out of games playing against big names because they're chasing phantom points and just how rarely this actually works.

There we go, I'll call it "Chasing the Phantom", and nobody will know what the hell I'm talking about when I do so I'll have to go into this lengthy explanation again. It's probably some drug reference I'm not cool enough to know too. Fuck it. I'm not calling it that. Carry on.

3. The teams they've faced should be arrested for sucking out loud in public
Point differential is one of the better indicators for how good a team actually is... unless EVERY FUCKING TEAM THEY FACE SUCKS!

I'm sorry, that's a bit hyperbolic, but you'll see my point soon enough.

Of the teams they beat, the mighty Patriots really beat a group that has a combined -437 point differential (counting the Jets twice since they faced them twice). And no, that isn't because they had to face the Patriots, they don't have a +400 point differential.

The average team they beat is worse than the Broncos in point differential by about 5 points, so anyone can fuck right off with their "AFC West sucks" counterpoint. For real, spot them 5 points against the Broncos and that's who the Pats have beat, I can't stress that enough. Even the best team they beat by point differential (Cowboys +74) are themselves propped up by a weak schedule.

In the interest of fairness, including the 2 teams that beat them bumps it up to only -228. But in comparison the Chiefs faced a schedule of a +56 point differential. Quick maths, +56 > -228. Our schedule has been far harder.



So I respect their defense... but I also really don't. Their offense isn't worthy of real respect, we've faced several as good or better. This actually is a cupcake schedule and is worth pointing out. They are as battle tested as the Peace Corps.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
11-24-2019, 07:32 PM
Forum: 65 Toss Power Trap
- Replies (23)

Every time the Raiders have enjoyed mild to moderate success over the past 2 decades the amount of time it takes them to go from a lowly dejected fanbase to "we're going to avenge the tuck rule game" is about a 2 game win-streak. It's no surprise that the fans at least felt all they had to do to beat the then 3-7 Jets was show up.

Reality is the Raiders just aren't that damn good, yet alone as good as they hope. They barely beat a handful of middling NFL teams, every win was by a single score. When they've lost they've gotten crushed, only one loss was by less than 18.

The Raiders have a winning record and still have a massive -56 point differential. Chiefs have +52. The Chiefs have been incredibly unlucky to be 7-4 and the Raiders have been blessed to be 6-5.

And yet in their syphilitic minds the Raiders probably thought they had things lined up exactly where they wanted them. I literally saw their fans lament they "controlled their own destiny" and fucked it up... it was barely over halfway through the season!

Turns out losing 34-3 to a team with a losing record does a lot to bring reality crashing back down. Suddenly they're remembering that Carr still sucks. Also, and I don't know why people didn't talk about this more, their defense is still trash.

The Chiefs Achilles heel is supposed to be their defense, but Oakland is worse or far worse in most categories including yards per play (5.9 vs. 5.6), opposing 3rd down conversion rate (47% vs. 37%), opposing QB rating (102.8 vs. 87.2), sacks, big plays given up, and just about every other efficiency metric besides yards per run. And if anything the Chiefs defense is trending upward.

I don't think I need to justify the Chiefs offense being better either. It's science.

But the most important thing is just plain winning this division home game. Chiefs win this their closest rival is 2 games back with 4 games to go and a tiebreaker over them. That's essentially a lock.

So Chiefs, please, go out there and make your marketing team send me an invoice for playoff game tickets already.

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Posted by: Chi-town_Chief
11-19-2019, 11:56 AM
Forum: 65 Toss Power Trap
- Replies (4)

He hasn't posted in a while. Everything ok with him?

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Posted by: asskickingboots
11-14-2019, 01:22 PM
Forum: 65 Toss Power Trap
- Replies (25)

This pretty well marks the anniversary of the concerted effort by the NFL to screw the Chiefs by moving a planned game against the Rams from Mexico City to LA because they didn't believe a surface could be re-sodded in time, despite the fact that is routine.

If you believe in NFL conspiracy theories, which I believe in some yet far from all, it'd be pretty easy to see what you want to believe across a wide gamut of circumstances in that game.

Now, this is the NFL's "make good" for that shitshow. Instead of facing the Rams it's now a division rival that couldn't hope to sell out a youth soccer complex without the aid of opposing fans.

Playing the Chargers on a neutral site is probably a benefit to them compared to their home turf. You'll have random people that just want to see American football first hand, fans of uninvolved teams, and maybe even the interest of some Chargers fans that just want an excuse to travel.

Despite the fast start the AFC West is starting to right itself and catch up to the Chiefs. If the Chargers win they'll be just a game back and the Raiders are only a half game back. As such, this game is vitally important for the Chiefs to continue their recent dominance of the division.

Despite that the Raiders just recently beat the Chargers, I think the Chargers are a more legit team. Not just because of perceived talent, but because the Chargers are +13 in point differential while the Raiders are -32 despite having a winning record.

After this week will be a much needed bye week, maybe we can look forward to some players getting healed up with a week off.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
11-14-2019, 10:58 AM
Forum: 65 Toss Power Trap
- Replies (1)

Thought I'd create a general thread early for Black Friday so we can hear any plans you may have or good deals you'd like to brag about share with us.

The main things I'm on the lookout for are:
A smart TV for my sister (not a gift, she just needs a new one)
Pretty much any Milwaukee tools, but particularly lighting and batteries
A radio for my workshop
A starter AR or a quality pistol on sale, either solely for target shooting... not really expecting you guys to know much about that.

The only things I've seen so far in my limited searching is TVs, looking at a 65" 4K TCL for $450 or a 49" Samsung QLED for $600. I'm not sure how much my sis wants to spend, but I'm using those deals as kind of a baseline for everything else I see.

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Posted by: DallasChief
11-05-2019, 11:53 AM
Forum: 65 Toss Power Trap
- Replies (9)

https://sports.yahoo.com/chargers-nfl-lo...56914.html

Sounds like they've replaced Jacksonville as the frontrunner to end up in London.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
11-04-2019, 02:11 PM
Forum: 65 Toss Power Trap
- Replies (33)

The Chiefs just beat an NFC playoff contender without Mahomes or Fisher or Clark or Fuller. I'm riding pretty high right now and that's before even considering the likelihood that we'll get Mahomes back this week.

This was immense in the big picture. It shows that while the Chiefs are clearly more dynamic and powerful of an offense and team with Mahomes, they aren't just a one man show. This is a playoff contender even with a replacement level player at QB. Also every team in the AFC West won, so this was vital to keep ahead of the division.

Meanwhile there's the Titans. A middling team that feels like they could randomly play up to the competition or look hilariously inept. People probably naturally assume they are a run-heavy team because that's their identity, but they actually kind of suck. They are averaging under 4 yards a carry as a team.

The real key is that the Titans have been better since they gave up on Mariota in favor of Tannehill. Tannehill has a far better completion percentage (71.8 vs. 59.1). He's been more efficient and modestly better as a result. I don't fear it though. Cousins was actually the second highest rated passer in the league going into Sunday's game.

When it comes down to it though, the Titans a sad sack of undisciplined assholes. They have committed the second most penalty yardage in the whole league, behind only the Raiders (Raiders have played 1 less game, though).

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Posted by: asskickingboots
10-30-2019, 07:29 AM
Forum: 65 Toss Power Trap
- Replies (22)

I thought maybe I lost my job since the Chiefs lost, but I guess people are happy enough with the performance of the team against an NFC contender without several starters including obviously our MVP QB, but also several Pro Bowl caliber players that I get to continue my dream job here.

Problem with that moral victory? We now get to face a different NFC contender while missing several Pro Bowl caliber players and our MVP QB... presumably. Besides, moral victories are for losers.

But we might see the final game of the Matt Moore era this Sunday. Even if he's healthy and Mahomes isn't after this week they may opt to start Chad Henne over Moore. In years past Moore's performance, which was okay-ish, would have had fans screaming into talk radio to beg for him to start and he absolutely would have over some of the garbage we called QBs. Now we have a guy who is truly the unquestioned leader of our team, and it feels so good.

I've already said this about this game, but we can afford to lose it. It's an NFC opponent, the rest of the AFC WEST is playing down with the possible exception of the Raiders, whom we already slaughtered on their home turf. I think it's clear they don't believe in themselves either seeing as they shipped away a starting CB in Gareon Conley with a classic bullshit Gruden excuse that it was to play younger players. Conley is 24. Gruden is an idiot.

But most importantly there seemed to be some legitimacy to our defense. Not that they're suddenly amazing, but they're getting to the QB and just generally playing better over the last couple weeks. Cousins isn't going to throw world class off platform throws to beat us like Rodgers. This game is absolutely winnable for us if our defense shows up.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
10-21-2019, 10:15 AM
Forum: 65 Toss Power Trap
- Replies (47)

Well, since they won I guess I get to keep my job here.

It's felt like forever since I would need to concede something I've had to concede most of my life as a Chiefs fan. That the opposing team we're about to face had the superior QB. Healthy I'll take Mahomes every day and twice on Sunday over Rodgers, quadrupibly (don't care if that's a word) so if we're talking about building a team from scratch.

I watched mostly in joy as Rodgers devastated the Raiders with a perfect passer rating, but the thought kept crossing my mind that we don't get to face Joe Flacco 9 more times this season. We have to face THAT next week on national TV. Also, that at some point I have to face him in fantasy.

But here's the thing. The Raiders are hilariously inept at rushing the passer. We literally had 1 less sack last week than they've had through 6 games (10 vs. 9). Obviously the counter is that we weren't great either going in to last Thursday, but if our defense is going to take another step forward, prove that the Broncos game was no fluke, it will be at the line of scrimmage.

It feels really weird that I think the defense is the x-factor that can win us the game. It looked like Spags remembered what a blitz was and when to use them.

I don't imagine Matt Moore will be throwing 57 yard bombs left and right, but he's never had these kinds of weapons before either. You could see the look on his face when he nailed that pass to Tyreek in stride, "That was easy! This is incredible". We might be pleasantly surprised.

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Posted by: NOLA
10-20-2019, 08:49 AM
Forum: 65 Toss Power Trap
- Replies (3)



This is pretty funny.

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