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Posted by: asskickingboots
Yesterday, 02:11 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (10)

Once again wanted to get a thread up nearly immediately. Let's get the basics out of the way and get the talk rolling. I'm also too amped to sleep, so I just as well drop some knowledge on ya.

Be sure to use this thread as a place to drop cool hype / breakdown / preview videos, memes, and articles. I'm going to ingest a disgusting amount of media over the next couple weeks just like last year.

We've seen this game already
Chiefs dominated the Bucs early in Week 12, particularly Tyreek having a career game in the first damn quarter for 203 yards. Yes, the Chiefs only won 27-24, but the Chiefs entered the 4th quarter with a 27-10 lead.

The Bucs legit did try to make a game of it, but if you look at the win probability according to ESPN it was never below an 84.7% since a few minutes into the 3rd quarter.

The Chiefs just don't like to shoot all of their bullets to "win more". This is why the media loves teams like the Ravens, but often fail to see the overwhelming dominance of the Chiefs since it doesn't always show up in the final stats besides the only one that matters... WINS. I like point differential as a baseline, but I know better than to rely exclusively on it.

I'm reviewing the highlights from that Chiefs Bucs game right now and remembering just how brutal that game was early. The Chiefs were up 17-0 midway through the 2nd, driving in the red zone when the Bucs got a lucky strip sack recovery. Before that the Bucs had 4 drives for 39 yards vs. 5 drives for 313 yards for the Chiefs. They were exceedingly fortunate their deficit wasn't larger as the Chiefs were inches from having a TD instead of a FG and easily in FG range again. They could have easily been down 28-0.

After that the Chiefs milked the clock like *insert crude euphemism* and ended with damn near a whole NFL quarter more TOP (36:46 vs. 23:13, a +13:33 advantage). Tom Brady did his best Garbage Time Philip Rivers impersonation (or Pad Stafford if you prefer) for the second half, but it was never really in doubt and it was clear who the better team was.

We've seen what Bye Week Andy Reid does to opponents
BWAR is a very real phenomenon, statistical anomaly, and force to be dealt with. BWAR is 24-3 post bye including playoffs as a head coach. BWAR is 7-0 with Mahomes as his QB. BWAR's offense scores 35.7 PPG in those games with Mahomes, even after being dragged down by the Browns game where he was rolling until he was knocked out of the game.

BWAR is gonna rock some shit in SB LV.

Old narratives die hard
"The Bucs have a better point differential! The Chiefs suck because they win close games!"
154% of their "advantage" in point differential comes from a 47 to 7 late December blowout against the Lions. Pantsing the Lions long after they already fired their coach doesn't make you cool. That's something losers think. Go think like a loser elsewhere.

It's not like a +111 PD is a sign of weakness, and if you took away week 17 that would also make PD much closer. The Chiefs play situational football exceedingly well in most cases, so get out of here with your BCS and Ken Pom rankings.

"Tampa's D will crush Mahomes!"
Again, look at the previous game between the two, 543 yards even with the team turning it off early.

Stylistically the Bucs are highly dependent on blitzing (2nd most plays of 5+ rushers in the NFL). Blitzing means either man coverage, soft zones, or some kind of shifting cloud coverage. If you take guys out of coverage or otherwise put them in a positional disadvantage with our weapons it's over. Kelce, Hill, and co. will win their 1 on 1s almost instantly in many cases and Mahomes destroys you.

I'm sure an updated advanced stat will pop up somewhere in the lead up to SB LV, but every time I've ever seen Mahomes vs. pressure stats it shows he's actually better than if you don't blitz.

If you don't blitz him you lose. If you do blitz him he'll just be more brutal when he does connect.

"Bills suck at running and still got 129 rushing yards! Chiefs' Run D SUCKS!"
I've explained previously how on a ypc basis the Chiefs' Run D is actually average, but anybody pointing this out to you needs to know 2 things.

1) The Bucs can't run for dick. Bucs are tied for 6th worst ypc (4.1 ypc) which is worse than the Bills and they too basically abandoned their run game (4th fewest rush attempts). I don't think Spags is a masterclass DC, but he seems to know how to shut down one dimensional offenses.

2) 88 yards was Josh Allen on scrambles and designed QB runs. Including the playoffs this year, Tom Brady has 36 rushes for 6 yards. I do not have that backwards. His ypc is 0.17, though I should note that rounding up is very generous. I'm pretty sure the New Madrid fault would beat him in a footrace.

"Tom Brady shines the brightest under big lights."
4 of Mahomes' 5 best performances by QB rating this season were against playoff teams, including the Bucs. The only playoff team he had below a 100 QB rating was the Saints (92.0). You cannot seriously feed me the line like that is the edge for Brady considering all of PM15's accomplishments already. It's frightening the pace he is on.

Besides, is that really the narrative we're going with after TB12 tried desperately to give the NFCCG to Green Bay with 3 straight drives ending with a pick? Thought not.

"Tom Brady is the GOAT!"
Not for long.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
01-17-2021, 08:52 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (36)

Again, I wanted to get a place for discussion up immediately. I'll look at some more angles and stuff to look at as we get closer, but here's some basics.

Obviously storyline #1 with a bullet is whether Mahomes will be healthy for the AFCCG. If he is, fantastic and I think we win in a walk. If not, I think we still have more than a chance, even with Henne at the helm.

We've already seen the regular season matchup of these two teams. The Chiefs dominated in an unusually run heavy 26-17 game where the Chiefs more than doubled the Bills in yards (466 v. 206), nearly doubled on TOP (38 vs. 22), nearly tripled their run output (245 v. 84), and crushed them on yards per play (6.4 vs. 4.1). It wasn't nearly as competitive as the score would indicate.

I think the Bills matchup horribly with the Chiefs. The Chiefs are built to beat heavy blitz teams, defend the pass better than the run typically, and just plain have better coaching and playoff experience.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
01-11-2021, 08:13 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (53)

I wanted to get the thread up early in the week so the discussion could get flowing. I'll add some stats and analysis later, but for now I leave you with this.

[Image: 61SeFXPIyUL.jpg]

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Posted by: tyecopeland
01-10-2021, 09:25 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (15)

So I can't believe how badly the Seahawks fell off this year. They started the season with such a bad defense and let russell carry them and then when their defense got better their offense completely fell apart.

Of course their defense wasn't great yesterday either.

Can't decide whether I'd like to see the Browns pull off the upset against the steelers or if I'd rather see them get blown out.

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Posted by: NOLA
01-04-2021, 06:19 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (27)

So... it looks like John Elway just fired himself from the GM job in Denver.

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Posted by: Razorchief
01-01-2021, 12:24 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (8)

when will we know the playoff schedule? specifically the Chiefs games. gotta plan my days off from work so i can be there. we play on Jan. 16th or 17th or does it depend on seeding of our opponent. I know the AFC Championship is the 24th so no problem there

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Posted by: Coach
01-01-2021, 12:05 AM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (16)

Here's hoping 2021 will be much better for everyone involved.

Year 2020, good riddance.

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Posted by: Coach
12-28-2020, 08:30 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (17)

So the Los Angeles Dolts (I still believe they should be in San Diego) comes rolling into Arrowhead after a barn burner win against the hapless Donks with a not so good 6-9 record.

So a few questions linger with the Dolts side.  Will this be Anthony Lynn's last game as a HC?  The team has been plagued with injuries all season long on both sides of the ball (which is nothing new, given past history), yet they still have a top-five defense. Lynn's in-game management and clock management is pretty horrific, so time will tell.

Coach Reid is leaning on resting some of the starters.  The question now will be is, who will be rested up?  I suspect that it will be Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Watkins, Fisher, and Clark, and possibly Bell and Jones.  Time will tell.

In other words.... this is probably going to be treated as a meaningless pre-season game with vanilla stuff on the Chiefs side.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-23-2020, 05:29 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (20)

I apologize that I couldn't think of a synonym for "game" that starts with a P.

The 13-1 Chiefs are all but mathematically assured the #1 seed, but will still likely play their starters for one more week to seal the deal. The 4-10 Falcons get to be the last sad lot to try and beat them.

The Falcons have a surprisingly decent point differential (+2) despite their losing record, but +37 of it came in a hilarious 43-6 drubbing of the then actively deflating Raiders after we put them in their place. The Raiders have lost every game since then against real NFL teams not named the Jets who they beat by a whopping 3 points.

If you take away that one game, suddenly the Falcons would be basically in the same boat as the also 4-10 Panthers (-33) and that seems about right.

The Falcons are an average offense with some excellent wideouts that are highly dependent on big plays. They have the 4th most 20+ passing plays behind the Chiefs (duh), Bills, and Texans. They clearly aren't as efficient as the Chiefs, who average far more yards per pass (7.4 vs. 8.2), a far better passer (91.2 vs. 110.6), and of course a better TD to INT ratio (26:14 vs. 36:5). It's feast or famine with them and the Chiefs pass D is their strength, 10th ranked despite leading in most games.

The Falcons defense is a little more on the worse side of average, but trash against the pass. 2nd most yards given up through the air. Their Rush D is considerably better and ranked 9th, but that's only because teams don't run on them (2nd fewest rushing attempts against) while in reality being pretty average (4.4 ypc, ranked 16th). Obviously, the Chiefs offense is built to destroy even good secondaries.

This is not a favorable matchup for the Falcons beyond the fact that they just are not in the same class as the Chiefs in overall quality.

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Posted by: asskickingboots
12-15-2020, 06:18 PM
Forum: HG Memorial Chiefs Talk
- Replies (31)

The Chiefs stand alone atop the standings.

The Steelers lost again, this time more convincingly to the Bills. The AFC East has gifted the Chiefs 3 wins, plus another here. What a blessing! And the Steelers still have to face the Bengals which should be manageable, the Colts which should be tough sledding, and the Browns who would collectively sacrifice their first born children to fulfill their slim hopes at a division title.

Now it's just the Chiefs at 12-1, #2 scoring offense, #8 scoring defense, #1 point differential (+122), and an MVP player continuing to do MVP things while leading a squad of elite players. The Chiefs control their destiny and appear destined to further secure their dynasty.

Who could dare oppose such a force?

The Saints at 10-3, #7 scoring offense, #4 scoring defense, #3 point differential (+103), and a beast leading them that is an all-time great at QB... unless he doesn't. Drew Brees status for this game is the biggest question mark of really any question mark we've seen all season.

Without Brees the team just lost to the Eagles piloted by a rookie QB. Mind you, Taysom Hill did pretty good, it may not be as simple as getting Brees back and everything being better, but it must have been a bitter pill to see a run first QB tear up the Saints after recent weeks watching Hill do this to opposing defenses.

With Hill it's a run first team that can pass in spots while leaning on their defense. With Brees it's a pass first team that can gash you with the run for huge chunks. It's still a respectable team without Brees, but he changes the complexion of this game immensely.

This is a tough game, but unsurprisingly the Chiefs are favorites and I think they would be even if Brees were healthy. But nobody thinks this is going to be easy, and a bored championship re-run can easily get knocked in the teeth by a team that just had their own rude awakening.

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